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Overlooked Sex And Gender Aspects Of Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks: Lessons Learned From Covid-19 To Move Towards Health Equity In Pandemic Response, Lynn Lieberman Lawry, Roberta Lugo-Robles, Vicki Mciver

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

Sex and gender issues are especially important in emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) but are routinely overlooked despite data and practice. Each of these have an effect either directly, via the effects on vulnerability to infectious diseases, exposures to infectious pathogens, and responses to illness, and indirectly through effects on disease prevention and control programs. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the viral agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has underscored the importance of understanding the sex and gender impacts on pandemics. This review takes a broader looks at how sex and gender impact vulnerability, exposure risk, and treatment and …

Recommended Reporting Items For Epidemic Forecasting And Prediction Research: The Epiforge 2020 Guidelines, Simon Pollett, Michael A. Johansson, Nicholas G. Reich, David Brett-Major, Sara Y. Del Valle, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rachel Lowe, Travis Porco, Irina Maljkovic Berry, Alina Deshpande, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, David L. Blazes, Wirichada Pan-Ngum, Alessandro Vespigiani, Suzanne E. Mate, Sheetal P. Silal, Sasikiran Kandula, Rachel Sippy, Talia M. Quandelacy, Jeffrey J. Morgan, Jacob Ball, Lindsay C. Morton, Benjamin M. Althouse, Julie Pavlin, Wilbert Van Panhuis, Steven Riley, Matthew Biggerstaff, Cecile Viboud, Oliver Brady, Caitlin Rivers

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives …

Lying In Wait: The Resurgence Of Dengue Virus After The Zika Epidemic In Brazil, Anderson Fernandes Brito, Lais Ceschini Machado, Rachel J. Oidtman, Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli, Quan Minh Tran, Joseph R. Fauver, Rodrigo Dias De Oliveira Carvalho, Filipe Zimmer Dezordi, Mylena Ribeiro Pereira, Luiza Antunes De Castro-Jorge, Elaine Cristina Manini Minto, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Passos, Chaney C. Kalinich, Mary E. Petrone, Emma Allen, Guido Camargo España, Angkana T. Huang, Derek A. T. Cummings, Guy Baele, Rafael Freitas Oliveira Franca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Da Fonseca, T. Alex Perkins, Gabriel Luz Wallau, Nathan D. Grubaugh

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility …

Identification And Evaluation Of Epidemic Prediction And Forecasting Reporting Guidelines: A Systematic Review And A Call For Action, Simon Pollett, Michael Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Lindsay C. Morton, Sara L. Bazaco, David Brett-Major, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Julie A. Pavlin, Suzanne Mate, Rachel Sippy, Laurie J. Hartman, Nicholas G. Reich, Irina Maljkovic Berry, Jean-Paul Chretien, Benjamin M. Althouse, Diane Myer, Cecile Viboud, Caitlin Rivers

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

INTRODUCTION: High quality epidemic forecasting and prediction are critical to support response to local, regional and global infectious disease threats. Other fields of biomedical research use consensus reporting guidelines to ensure standardization and quality of research practice among researchers, and to provide a framework for end-users to interpret the validity of study results. The purpose of this study was to determine whether guidelines exist specifically for epidemic forecast and prediction publications.

METHODS: We undertook a formal systematic review to identify and evaluate any published infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction reporting guidelines. This review leveraged a team of 18 investigators …

Implementation And Evaluation Of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Surveillance In Puerto Rico During The 2016 Zika Virus Epidemic, Chelsea G. Major, Emilio Dirlikov, Nicole A. Medina, Roberta Lugo-Robles, Desiree Matos, Jorge Muñoz-Jordán, Candimar Colón-Sánchez, Myriam García-Negrón, Marangely Olivero-Segarra, Graciela Malavé-González, Dana L. Thomas, Carlos A. Luciano, Stephen H. Waterman, James Sejvar, Tyler M. Sharp, Brenda Rivera-García

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

OBJECTIVE: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an uncommon autoimmune disorder that follows infection or vaccination, and increased incidence has been reported during Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission. During the 2016 ZIKV epidemic, the Puerto Rico Department of Health (PRDH) implemented the Enhanced GBS Surveillance System (EGBSSS). Here, we describe EGBSSS implementation and evaluate completeness, validity, and timeliness.

METHODS: GBS cases were identified using passive surveillance and discharge diagnostic code for GBS. Completeness was evaluated by capture-recapture methods. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for confirmed GBS cases were calculated for both case identification methods. Median time to completion of key time steps …

Clinical Presentation Of Patients With Ebola Virus Disease In Conakry, Guinea, Elhadj Ibrahima Bah, Marie-Claire Lamah, Tom Fletcher, Shevin T. Jacob, David Brett-Major, Amadou Alpha Sall, Nahoko Shindo, William A. Fischer, Francois Lamontagne, Sow Mamadou Saliou, Daniel G. Bausch, Barry Moumié, Tim Jagatic, Armand Sprecher, James V. Lawler, Thierry Mayet, Frederique A. Jacquerioz, María F. Méndez Baggi, Constanza Vallenas, Christophe Clement, Simon Mardel, Ousmane Faye, Oumar Faye, Baré Soropogui, Nfaly Magassouba, Lamine Koivogui, Ruxandra Pinto, Robert A. Fowler

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

BACKGROUND: In March 2014, the World Health Organization was notified of an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus in a remote area of Guinea. The outbreak then spread to the capital, Conakry, and to neighboring countries and has subsequently become the largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to date.

METHODS: From March 25 to April 26, 2014, we performed a study of all patients with laboratory-confirmed EVD in Conakry. Mortality was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included patient characteristics, complications, treatments, and comparisons between survivors and nonsurvivors.

RESULTS: Of 80 patients who presented with symptoms, 37 had laboratory-confirmed EVD. Among confirmed …

Being Ready To Treat Ebola Virus Disease Patients, David Brett-Major, Shevin T. Jacob, Frederique A. Jacquerioz, George F. Risi, William A. Fischer, Yasuyuki Kato, Catherine F. Houlihan, Ian Crozier, Henry Kyobe Bosa, James V. Lawler, Takuya Adachi, Sara K. Hurley, Louise E. Berry, John C. Carlson, Thomas C. Button, Susan L. Mclellan, Barbara J. Shea, Gary G. Kuniyoshi, Mauricio Ferri, Srinivas G. Murthy, Nicola Petrosillo, Francois Lamontagne, David T. Porembka, John S. Schieffelin, Lewis Rubinson, Tim O'Dempsey, Suzanne M. Donovan, Daniel G. Bausch, Robert A. Fowler, Thomas E. Fletcher

Journal Articles: Epidemiology

As the outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa continues, clinical preparedness is needed in countries at risk for EVD (e.g., United States) and more fully equipped and supported clinical teams in those countries with epidemic spread of EVD in Africa. Clinical staff must approach the patient with a very deliberate focus on providing effective care while assuring personal safety. To do this, both individual health care providers and health systems must improve EVD care. Although formal guidance toward these goals exists from the World Health Organization, Medecin Sans Frontières, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and …