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Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Case Studies In Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using The Relative Mean Absolute Error, Nicholas G. Reich, Justin Lessler, Krzysztof Sakrejda, Stephen A. Lauer, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Derek A T Cummings
Nicholas G Reich
Statistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this paper, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions that emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single time series, this metric enables comparisons of candidate model predictions against naive reference models, a method that can provide useful and standardized performance benchmarks. Additionally, in applications with multiple time series, this …
Cluster Randomized Trials And Statistical Power, Stephen A. Lauer, Nicholas G. Reich
Cluster Randomized Trials And Statistical Power, Stephen A. Lauer, Nicholas G. Reich
Nicholas G Reich
The cluster-randomized trial (CRT) is a common study design in public health research. In situations where dividing a group of individuals into treatment and controls is unethical or impossible, a CRT design maintains the strengths of a randomized study design. By comparing the outcomes of small populations (clusters), we can observe the impacts of interventions on the community as a whole. Public health researchers around the world have utilized CRTs to measure the effect of, for example, de-worming medication on school attendance, financial incentives on doctor absenteeism, and providing chlorine to waterholes. The CRT can be a potent tool, however …