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A Hypothesis Test For The End Of A Common Source Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Xiaojun You
A Hypothesis Test For The End Of A Common Source Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Xiaojun You
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
The objective of this paper is to develop a hypothesis testing procedure to determine whether a common source outbreak has ended. We do not assume that the calendar date of exposure to the pathogen is known. We assume an underlying parametric model for the incubation period distribution of a 2-paramter exponential model with a guarantee time, although the parameters are not assumed to be known. The hypothesis testing procedure is based on the spacings between ordered calendar dates of disease onset of the cases. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the robustness of the methods to a lognormal model …
Temporal Stability And Geographic Variation In Cumulative Case Fatality Rates And Average Doubling Times Of Sars Epidemics, Alison P. Galvani, Xiudong Lei, Nicholas P. Jewell
Temporal Stability And Geographic Variation In Cumulative Case Fatality Rates And Average Doubling Times Of Sars Epidemics, Alison P. Galvani, Xiudong Lei, Nicholas P. Jewell
U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series
We analyze temporal stability and geographic trends in cumulative case fatality rates and average doubling times of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). In part, we account for correlations between case fatality rates and doubling times through differences in control measures. We discuss factors that may alter future estimates of case fatality rates. We also discuss reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries and the implications for the control of SARS in different countries and parameterization of epidemic models.