Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 1 of 1
Full-Text Articles in Medicine and Health Sciences
Forecasting The Global Burden Of Alzheimer's Disease, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Kathryn Ziegler-Graham, H. Michael Arrighi
Forecasting The Global Burden Of Alzheimer's Disease, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Kathryn Ziegler-Graham, H. Michael Arrighi
Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers
Background: The goal was to forecast the global burden of Alzheimer’s disease and evaluate the potential impact of interventions that delay disease onset or progression. Methods: A stochastic multi-state model was used in conjunction with U.N. worldwide population forecasts and data from epidemiological studies on risks of Alzheimer’s disease.
Findings: In 2006 the worldwide prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease was 26.6 million. By 2050, prevalence will quadruple by which time 1 in 85 persons worldwide will be living with the disease. We estimate about 43% of prevalent cases need a high level of care equivalent to that of a nursing home. …