Medicine and Health Sciences Commons^™

Covid-19 Collaborative Modelling For Policy Response In The Philippines, Malaysia And Vietnam, Angus Hughes, Romain Ragonnet, Pavithra Jayasundara, Hoang-Anh Ngo, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Ma. Regina Justina Estuar, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Law Kian Boon, Kalaiarasu M. Peariasamy, Zhuo-Lin Chong, Izzuna Mudla M. Ghazali, Greg J. Fox, Thu-Anh Nguyen, Linh-Vi Le, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, David Shipman, Emma S. Mcbryde, Michael T. Meehan, Jamie M. Caldwell, James M. Trauer

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Mathematical models that capture COVID-19 dynamics have supported public health responses and policy development since the beginning of the pandemic, yet there is limited discourse to describe features of an optimal modelling platform to support policy decisions or how modellers and policy makers have engaged with each other. Here, we outline how we used a modelling software platform to support public health decision making for the COVID-19 response in the Western Pacific Region (WPR) countries of the Philippines, Malaysia and Viet Nam. This perspective describes an approach to support evidence-based public health decisions and policy, which may help inform other …

Understanding Covid-19 Dynamics And The Effects Of Interventions In The Philippines: A Mathematical Modelling Study, Jamie M. Caldwell, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar, Raymond Francis R. Sarmiento, Milinda Abayawardana B. Eng, Robert Neil F. Leong, Richard T. Gray, James G. Wood, Linh-Vi Le, Emma S. Mcbryde, Romain Ragonnet, James M. Trauer

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Background

COVID-19 initially caused less severe outbreaks in many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) compared with many high-income countries; possibly because of differing demographics; socioeconomics; surveillance; and policy responses. Here; we investigate the role of multiple factors on COVID-19 dynamics in the Philippines; a LMIC that has had a relatively severe COVID-19 outbreak.

Methods

We applied an age-structured compartmental model that incorporated time-varying mobility; testing; and personal protective behaviors (through a “Minimum Health Standards” policy; MHS) to represent the first wave of the Philippines COVID-19 epidemic nationally and for three highly affected regions (Calabarzon; Central Visayas; and the National Capital …

Sars-Cov-2 And Rohingya Refugee Camp, Bangladesh: Uncertainty And How The Government Took Over The Situation, Md. Md. Kamrujjaman, Md. Shahriar Mahmud, Shakil Ahmed, Md. Omar Qayum, Mohammad Morshad Alam, Md. Nazmul Hassan, Md. Rafiul Islam, Kaniz Fatema Nipa, Ummugul Bulut

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Background: Bangladesh hosts more than 800,000 Rohingya refugees from Myanmar. The low health immunity, lifestyle, access to good healthcare services, and social-security cause this population to be at risk of far more direct effects of COVID-19 than the host population. Therefore, evidence-based forecasting of the COVID-19 burden is vital in this regard. In this study, we aimed to forecast the COVID-19 obligation among the Rohingya refugees of Bangladesh to keep up with the disease outbreak’s pace, health needs, and disaster preparedness. Methodology and Findings: To estimate the possible consequences of COVID-19 in the Rohingya camps of Bangladesh, we used a …

Impact Of Vaccine Supplies And Delays On Optimal Control Of The Covid-19 Pandemic: Mapping Interventions For The Philippines, Carlo Delfin S. Estadilla, Joshua Uyheng, Elvira P. De Lara-Tuprio, Timothy Robin Y. Teng, Jay Michael R. Macalalag, Ma. Regina Justina E. Estuar

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Background

Around the world, controlling the COVID-19 pandemic requires national coordination of multiple intervention strategies. As vaccinations are globally introduced into the repertoire of available interventions, it is important to consider how changes in the local supply of vaccines, including delays in administration, may be addressed through existing policy levers. This study aims to identify the optimal level of interventions for COVID-19 from 2021 to 2022 in the Philippines, which as a developing country is particularly vulnerable to shifting assumptions around vaccine availability. Furthermore, we explore optimal strategies in scenarios featuring delays in vaccine administration, expansions of vaccine supply, and …

Isolating And Quantifying The Role Of Developmental Noise In Generating Phenotypic Variation, Maria Kiskowski, Tilmann Glimm, Nickolas Moreno, Tony Gamble, Ylenia Chiari

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Genotypic variation, environmental variation, and their interaction may produce variation in the developmental process and cause phenotypic differences among individuals. Developmental noise, which arises during development from stochasticity in cellular and molecular processes when genotype and environment are fixed, also contributes to phenotypic variation. While evolutionary biology has long focused on teasing apart the relative contribution of genes and environment to phenotypic variation, our understanding of the role of developmental noise has lagged due to technical difficulties in directly measuring the contribution of developmental noise. The influence of developmental noise is likely underestimated in studies of phenotypic variation due to …

Optimal Control Analysis Of Ebola Disease With Control Strategies Of Quarantine And Vaccination, Muhammad Dure Ahmad, Muhammad Usman, Adnan Khan, Mudassar Imran

Mathematics Faculty Publications

The 2014 Ebola epidemic is the largest in history, affecting multiple countries in West Africa. Some isolated cases were also observed in other regions of the world.

Tau And Aβ Imaging, Csf Measures, And Cognition In Alzheimer's Disease, Matthew R. Brier, Brian Gordon, Karl Friedrichsen, John E. Mccarthy, Ari Stern, Jon Christensen, Christopher Owen, Patricia Aldea, Yi Su, Jason Hassenstab, Nigel J. Cairns, David M. Holtzman, Anne M. Fagan, John C. Morris, Tammie L.S. Benzinger, Beau M. Ances

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is characterized by two molecular pathologies: cerebral β-amyloidosis in the form of β-amyloid (Aβ) plaques and tauopathy in the form of neurofibrillary tangles, neuritic plaques, and neuropil threads. Until recently, only Aβ could be studied in humans using positron emission tomography (PET) imaging owing to a lack of tau PET imaging agents. Clinical pathological studies have linked tau pathology closely to the onset and progression of cognitive symptoms in patients with AD. We report PET imaging of tau and Aβ in a cohort of cognitively normal older adults and those with mild AD. Multivariate analyses identified unique …

Partial Covariance Based Functional Connectivity Computation Using Ledoit-Wolf Covariance Regularization, Matthew R. Brier, Anish Mitra, John E. Mccarthy, Beau M. Ances, Abraham Z. Snyder

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Highlights •We use the well characterized matrix regularization technique described by Ledoit and Wolf to calculate high dimensional partial correlations in fMRI data. •Using this approach we demonstrate that partial correlations reveal RSN structure suggesting that RSNs are defined by widely and uniquely shared variance. •Partial correlation functional connectivity is sensitive to changes in brain state indicating that they contain functional information. Functional connectivity refers to shared signals among brain regions and is typically assessed in a task free state. Functional connectivity commonly is quantified between signal pairs using Pearson correlation. However, resting-state fMRI is a multivariate process exhibiting a …

Local And Distributed Pib Accumulation Associated With Development Of Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease, Matthew R. Brier, John E. Mccarthy, Tammie L.S. Benzinger, Ari Stern, Yi Su, Karl A. Friedrichsen, John C. Morris, Beau M. Ances, Andrei G. Vlassenko

Mathematics Faculty Publications

Amyloid-beta plaques are a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease (AD) that can be assessed by amyloid imaging (e.g., Pittsburgh B compound [PiB]) and summarized as a scalar value. Summary values may have clinical utility but are an average over many regions of interest, potentially obscuring important topography. This study investigates the longitudinal evolution of amyloid topographies in cognitively normal older adults who had normal (N = 131) or abnormal (N = 26) PiB scans at baseline. At 3 years follow-up, 16 participants with a previously normal PiB scan had conversion to PiB scans consistent with preclinical AD. We investigated the multivariate …