Life Sciences Commons^™

Modeling Plant Ranges Over 75 Years Of Climate Change In California, Usa: Temporal Transferability And Species Traits, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, James H. Thorne, Johnathan A. Greenberg, Hugh D. Safford, Alison R. Mynsberge, Shawn M. Crimmins, Alan K. Swanson

Forest Management Faculty Publications

Species distribution model (SDM) projections under future climate scenarios are increasingly being used to inform resource management and conservation strategies. A critical assumption for projecting climate change responses is that SDMs are transferable through time, an assumption that is largely untested because investigators often lack temporally independent data for assessing transferability. Further, understanding how the ecology of species influences temporal transferability is critical yet almost wholly lacking. This raises two questions. (1) Are SDM projections transferable in time? (2) Does temporal transferability relate to species ecological traits? To address these questions we developed SDMs for 133 vascular plant species using …