Life Sciences Commons^™

Evaluation Of Species Distribution Models By Resampling Of Sites Surveyed A Century Ago By Joseph Grinnell, Adam B. Smith, Maria J. Santos, Michelle S. Koo, Karen M.C. Rowe, Kevin C. Rowe, James L. Patton, John D. Perrine, Steven R. Beissinger, Craig Moritz

Biological Sciences

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly applied to predict species’ responses to anticipated global change, but lack of data from future time periods precludes assessment of their reliability. Instead, performance against test data in the same era is assumed to correlate with accuracy in the future. Moreover, high-confidence absence data is required for testing model accuracy but is often unavailable since a species may be present when undetected. Here we evaluate the performance of eight SDMs trained with historic (1900–1939) or modern (1970–2009) climate data and occurrence records for 18 mammalian species. Models were projected to the same or the …