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Multiple Diseases In Carrier Probability Estimation: Accounting For Surviving All Cancers Other Than Breast And Ovary In Brcapro, Hormuzd A. Katki, Amanda Blackford, Sining Chen, Giovanni Parmigiani

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if …