Life Sciences Commons^™

Non-Native Rhizophora Mangle As Sinks For Coastal Contamination On Moloka’I, Hawai’I, Geoffrey Szafranski, Elise F. Granek, Michelle L. Hladik, Mia Hackett

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Coastal mangrove forests provide a suite of environmental services, including sequestration of anthropogenic contamination. Yet, research lags on the environmental fate and potential human health risks of mangrove-sequestered contaminants in the context of mangrove removal for development and range shifts due to climate change. To address this, we conducted a study on Moloka'i, Hawai'i, comparing microplastic and pesticide contamination in coastal compartments both at areas modified by non-native red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle) and unmodified, open coastline. Sediment, porewater, and mangrove plant tissues were collected to quantify microplastic and pesticide concentrations across ecosystem type. Average microplastics were similar between …

Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland– urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for …

Planning For Future Fire: Scenario Analysis Of An Accelerated Fuel Reduction Plan For The Western United States, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Fermin J. Alcasena, Rachel Houtman

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Recent fire seasons brought a new fire reality to the western US, and motivated federal agencies to explore scenarios for augmenting current fuel management and forest restoration in areas where fires might threaten critical resources and developed areas. To support this effort, we modeled the scheduling of an accelerated forest and fuel management scenario on 76 western US national forests. Specifically, we modeled a 10-year ramp up of current forest and fuel management that targeted the source of wildfire exposure to developed areas and simulated treatment in areas that accounted for 77% of the predicted exposure. We used a sample …

Projected Impact Of Mid-21st Century Climate Change On Wildfire Hazard In A Major Urban Watershed Outside Portland, Oregon Usa, Andy Mcevoy, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Andres Holz, Arielle J. Catalano, Kelly E. Gleason

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Characterizing wildfire regimes where wildfires are uncommon is challenged by a lack of empirical information. Moreover, climate change is projected to lead to increasingly frequent wildfires and additional annual area burned in forests historically characterized by long fire return intervals. Western Oregon and Washington, USA (westside) have experienced few large wildfires (fires greater than 100 hectares) the past century and are characterized to infrequent large fires with return intervals greater than 500 years. We evaluated impacts of climate change on wildfire hazard in a major urban watershed outside Portland, OR, USA. We simulated wildfire occurrence and fire regime characteristics under …

Vulnerability Of Small Forest Patches To Fire In The Paraiba Do Sul River Valley, Southeast Brazil: Implications For Restoration Of The Atlantic Forest Biome, Betina J. Guedes, Klecia G. Massi, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Atlantic Forest biome, a biodiversity hotspot historically threatened by deforestation and human disturbance, has recently seen a net gain in native forest cover due to changes in land use, enactment of new laws, and substantial investment in restoration. Like many South American and global ecosystems, the Atlantic Forest biome has also experienced an increase in area burned by wildfire largely due to human ignitions, which threatens these gains. Our objective was to understand the vulnerability of protected areas and small patches of neotropical forest to fire in the Paraíba do Sul River Valley, Brazil, a region within the Atlantic …

Fire And Land Cover Change In The Palouse Prairie–Forest Ecotone, Washington And Idaho, Usa, Penelope Morgan, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser Ii, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mara Johnson

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Prairie–forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. Our objective was to understand how historical and current fire occurrences and human development influenced the Palouse Prairie–forest ecotone. We used General Land Office survey field notes about the occurrence of bearing trees to locate historical (1870s to 1880s) prairie, pine savanna, and forest at the eastern edge of the bioregion. We combined LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation classes to contrast historical land cover with current land cover. We reconstructed …

Hydrochorous Seed Dispersal In Riparian Forests Altered By Urbanization, Christa Von Behren, J. Alan Yeakley

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

While riparian habitat alterations from urban stream syndrome are known to affect vegetation establishment and survival, the degree to which riparian seed delivery by hydrochory is affected by urbanization is unclear. We hypothesized that (1) there would be a reduction in the overall number of seeds deposited by streams as watershed urbanization increased; and (2) in the most urbanized watersheds, seeds deposited by water would be predominantly from species with traits favoring dispersal in general, including tall stature and high seed production, and favoring deposition by water in particular, including large seed size and the presence of a dispersal appendage. …

Wildland Fire Reburning Trends Across The Us West Suggest Only Short-Term Negative Feedback And Differing Climatic Effects, Brian Buma, Shelby A. Weiss, K. Hayes, Melissa S. Lucash

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildfires are a significant agent of disturbance in forests and highly sensitive to climate change. Short-interval fires and high severity (mortality-causing) fires in particular, may catalyze rapid and substantial ecosystem shifts by eliminating woody species and triggering conversions from forest to shrub or grassland ecosystems. Modeling and fine-scale observations suggest negative feedbacks between fire and fuels should limit reburn prevalence as overall fire frequency rises. However, while we have good information on reburning patterns for individual fires or small regions, the validity of scaling these conclusions to broad regions like the US West remains unknown. Both the prevalence of reburning …

Widespread Severe Wildfires Under Climate Change Lead To Increased Forest Homogeneity In Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests, Brooke Alyce Cassell, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Matthew Hurteau, E. Louise Loudermilk

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Climate warming in the western United States is causing changes to the wildfire regime in mixed-conifer forests. Rising temperatures, longer fire seasons, increased drought, as well as fire suppression and changes in land use, have led to greater and more severe wildfire activity, all contributing to altered forest composition over the past century. To understand future interactions among climate, wildfire, and vegetation in a fire-prone landscape in the southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon, we used a spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest and fire dynamics under current management practices and two projected climate scenarios. The results …

Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures …

Fine-Scale Assessment Of Cross-Boundary Wildfire Events In The Western United States, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We report a fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events for the western US. We used simulation modeling to quantify the extent of fire exchange among major federal, state, and private land tenures and mapped locations where fire ignitions can potentially affect populated places. We examined how parcel size affects wildfire transmission and partitioned the relative amounts of transmitted fire between human and natural ignitions. We estimated that 85 % of the total predicted wildfire activity, as measured by area burned, originates from four land tenures (Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, private, and state lands) and 63 % of the …

Four-Fold Increase In Solar Forcing On Snow In Western U.S. Burned Forests Since 1999, Kelly E. Gleason, Joseph R. Mcconnell, Monica M. Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Wendy M. Calvin

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forest fires are increasing across the American West due to climate warming and fire suppression. Accelerated snow melt occurs in burned forests due to increased light transmission through the canopy and decreased snow albedo from deposition of light-absorbing impurities. Using satellite observations, we document up to an annual 9% growth in western forests burned since 1984, and 5 day earlier snow disappearance persisting for >10 years following fire. Here, we show that black carbon and burned woody debris darkens the snowpack and lowers snow albedo for 15 winters following fire, using measurements of snow collected from seven forested sites that …

Using Transboundary Wildfire Exposure Assessments To Improve Fire Management Programs: A Case Study In Greece, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Kostas Kalabokidis

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land …

The Economic Contribution Of Stewardship Contracting: Two Case Studies From The Mount Hood National Forest, Jean M. Daniels, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Nathan Poage

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We conducted an economic analysis of two case study stewardship contracts on the Mount Hood National Forest in western Oregon. Stewardship contracting has been embraced by some federal managers to achieve restoration goals while providing economic benefits to local communities. Little is known about economic contributions from stewardship contracts, including how they compare against Secure Rural Schools funding or the century-old payments to counties revenue sharing system. Using expenditure data from sale purchasers, contractors, and fiscal agents, we developed methodology to track spending and used IMPLAN software to estimate economic contributions and multipliers. Results showed that (1) commercial thinning, service …

Assessing Transboundary Wildfire Exposure In The Southwestern United States, Alan A. Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Ana M.G. Barros

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We assessed transboundary wildfire exposure among federal, state, and private lands and 447 communities in the state of Arizona, southwestern United States. The study quantified the relative magnitude of transboundary (incoming, outgoing) versus nontransboundary (i.e., self-burning) wildfire exposure based on land tenure or community of the simulated ignition and the resulting fire perimeter. We developed and described several new metrics to quantify and map transboundary exposure. We found that incoming transboundary fire accounted for 37% of the total area burned on large parcels of federal and state lands, whereas 63% of the area burned was burned by ignitions within the …

Assessing The Impacts Of Federal Forest Planning On Wildfire Risk Mitigation In The Pacific Northwest, Usa, Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Karen C. Short, Cody R. Evers

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent …

Bioenergy Harvest, Climate Change, And Forest Carbon In The Oregon Coast Range, Megan K. Creutzburg, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Louisa B. Evers, Stephen D. Leduc, Mark G. Johnson

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forests provide important ecological, economic and social services, and recent interest has emerged in the potential for using residue from timber harvest as a source of renewable woody bioenergy. The long-term consequences of such intensive harvest are unclear, particularly as forests face novel climatic conditions over the next century. We used a simulation model to project the long-term effects of management and climate change on above- and below ground carbon storage in a watershed in northwestern Oregon. The multi-ownership watershed has a diverse range of current management practices, including little-to-no harvesting on federal lands, short-rotation clear-cutting on industrial land, and …

Climate And Bark Beetle Effects On Forest Productivity — Linking Dendroecology With Forest Landscape Modeling, Alec M. Kretchun, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Matthew Hurteau, Soumaya Belmecher

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at multiple spatial scales and is essential for understanding regional forest response to changing climate. The mixed conifer forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, provide an opportunity to analyze biotic and abiotic influences on ANPP. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of moisture stress (climatic water deficit, CWD) and …

Climate-Suitable Planting As A Strategy For Maintaining Forest Productivity And Functional Diversity, Matthew Joshua Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within …

Modeling Predator Habitat To Enhance Reintroduction Planning, Shiloh Michael Halsey, William J. Zielinski, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Context

The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus).

Objectives

To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable …

Fire Modulates Climate Change Response Of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients In A Semi-Arid Montane Landscape, Jian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg, Douglas J. Shinneman, Thomas E. Dilts, Susan L. Earnst, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients.

Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients.

Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer …

Re-Envisioning Community-Wildfire Relations In The U.S. West As Adaptive Governance, Jesse B. Abrams, Melanie Knapp, Travis B. Paveglio, Autumn Ellison, Cassandra Moseley, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Matthew S. Carroll

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Prompted by a series of increasingly destructive, expensive, and highly visible wildfire crises in human communities across the globe, a robust body of scholarship has emerged to theorize, conceptualize, and measure community-level resilience to wildfires. To date, however, insufficient consideration has been given to wildfire resilience as a process of adaptive governance mediated by institutions at multiple scales. Here we explore the possibilities for addressing this gap through an analysis of wildfire resilience among wildland-urban interface communities in the western region of the United States. We re-engage important but overlooked components of social-ecological system resilience by situating rural communities within …

Predicted Effects Of Gypsy Moth Defoliation And Climate Change On Forest Carbon Dynamics In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Alec M. Kretchun, Robert M. Scheller, Melissa S. Lucash, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom, Steve Van Tuyl

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate change, gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) defoliation, and wildfire on the C dynamics of the forests of the New Jersey Pine Barrens over the next century. Climate scenarios were simulated using current climate conditions (baseline), as well as a high emissions scenario (HadCM3 A2 …

The Community Economic Impacts Of Large Wildfires: A Case Study From Trinity County, California, Emily Jane Davis, Cassandra Moseley, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Pamela J. Jakes

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured …

Climate Change Effects On Northern Great Lake (Usa) Forests: A Case For Preserving Diversity, Matthew Joshua Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller, Mark A. White, Stephen D. Handler, Catherine Ravenscroft

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity …

Multimodel Simulations Of Forest Harvesting Effects On Long-Term Productivity And Cn Cycling In Aspen Forests, Fugui Wang, David J. Mladenoff, Jodi A. Forrester, Juan A. Blanco, Robert M. Scheller, Scott D. Peckham, Cindy Keough, Melissa S. Lucash

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The effects of forest management on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics vary by harvest type and species. We simulated long-term effects of bole-only harvesting of aspen (Populus tremuloides) on stand productivity and interaction of CN cycles with a multiple model approach. Five models, Biome-BGC, CENTURY, FORECAST, LANDIS-II with Century-based soil dynamics, and PnET-CN, were run for 350 years with seven harvesting events on nutrient-poor, sandy soils representing northwestern Wisconsin, USA. Twenty CN state and flux variables were summarized from the models' outputs, and statistically analyzed using ordination and variance analysis methods. The multiple models' averages suggest that bole-only …

Impacts Of Fire And Climate Change On Long-Term Nitrogen Availability And Forest Productivity In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had …

The Effects Of Large Wildfires On Employment And Wage Growth And Volatility In The Western United States, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Krista Gebert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examined the effect of large wildfires on economic growth and volatility in the western United States. We matched wildfire data with quarterly employment and earnings growth data to assess the specific effect of wildfire on employment and wage growth in western US counties. Wildfires generally tended to exhibit positive effects on employment and wage growth in the quarter(s) during which suppression efforts were active. However, this effect transitioned to increased economic volatility following a wildfire. The effect of wildfire also varied by the type of county in which wildfire occurred. The amount of suppression costs invested locally had the …

Carbon Dynamics In The Future Forest: The Importance Of Long-Term Successional Legacy And Climate–Fire Interactions, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Peter J. Weisberg, Jian Yang, Thomas E. Dilts, Sarah L. Karam, Carl Skinner

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long-term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape-scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results …

Climate Change And Fire Management In The Mid-Atlantic Region, Kenneth L. Clark, Nicholas Skowronski, Heidi Renninger, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this review, we summarize the potential impacts of climate change on wildfire activity in the mid­-Atlantic region, and then consider how the beneficial uses of prescribed fire could conflict with mitigation needs for climate change, focusing on patters of carbon (C) sequestration by forests in the region. We use a synthesis of field studies, eddy flux tower measurements, and simulation studies to evaluate how the use of prescibed fire affects short-and long-term forest C dynamics. Climate change may create weather conditions more conducive to wildfire activity, but successional changes in forest composition, altered gap dynamics, reduced understory and forest …