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The Orgins Of The Seasonal Cycle In 19th Century Us Money Markets And The Evolution Of Futures Contracts, Joseph Santos

Economics Research Reports

Early scholars of aggregate fluctuations, including Jevons ( 1884) and Kemmerer ( 1910), introduced the notion that seasonal cycles were relevant to the study of other, seemingly more important, fluctuations in macroeconomic time series. Kuznets (1933) continued this approach, recognizing the tendency for seasonal variations to exacerbate the variability of employment and capital accumulation. But, as economic contractions intensified in the J 930's, economists began to discount the relative importance of the seasonal cycle. Work by Mitchell (1927), Pigou (I 929) and later, Burns and Mitchell ( 194 7), promulgated the view that fluctuations in commercial activity were relevant to …