Life Sciences Commons^™

On The Prediction Of Extreme Ecological Events, Mark W. Denny, Luke J. H. Hunt, Luke P. Miller, Christopher D. G. Harley

Luke P. Miller

Ecological studies often focus on average effects of environmental factors, but ecological dynamics may depend as much upon environmental extremes. Ecology would therefore benefit from the ability to predict the frequency and severity of extreme environmental events. Some extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) are simple events: either they happen or they don't, and they are generally difficult to predict. In contrast, extreme ecological events are often compound events, resulting from the chance coincidence of run-of-the-mill factors. Here we present an environmental bootstrap method for resampling short-term environmental data (rolling the environmental dice) to calculate an ensemble of hypothetical time series that …