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Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences
Challenges In Predicting The Future Distributions Of Invasive Plant Species, Chad C. Jones
Challenges In Predicting The Future Distributions Of Invasive Plant Species, Chad C. Jones
Botany Faculty Publications
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict distributions of invasive species. If successful, these models can help managers target limited resources for monitoring and controlling invasive species to areas of high invasion risk. Model accuracy is usually determined using current species distributions, but because invasive species are not at equilibrium with the environment, high current accuracy may not indicate high future accuracy. I used 1982 species distribution data from Bolleswood Natural Area, Connecticut, USA, to create SDMs for two forest invaders, Celastrus orbiculatus and Rosa multiflora. I then used more recent data, from 1992 and 2002, as validation …
Combining Local- And Large-Scale Models To Predict The Distributions Of Invasive Plant Species, Chad C. Jones, Steven A. Acker, Charles B. Halpern
Combining Local- And Large-Scale Models To Predict The Distributions Of Invasive Plant Species, Chad C. Jones, Steven A. Acker, Charles B. Halpern
Botany Faculty Publications
Habitat-distribution models are increasingly used to predict the potential distributions of invasive species and to inform monitoring. However, these models assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment, which is clearly not true for most invasive species. Although this assumption is frequently acknowledged, solutions have not been adequately addressed. There are several potential methods for improving habitat-distribution models. Models that require only presence data may be more effective for invasive species, but this assumption has rarely been tested. In addition, combining modeling types to form ‘ensemble’ models may improve the accuracy of predictions. However, even with these improvements, models …
Current And Potential Distributions Of Three Non-Native Invasive Plants In The Contiguous Usa, Chad C. Jones, Sarah Reichard
Current And Potential Distributions Of Three Non-Native Invasive Plants In The Contiguous Usa, Chad C. Jones, Sarah Reichard
Botany Faculty Publications
Biological invasions pose a serious threat to biodiversity, but monitoring for invasive species is time consuming and costly. Understanding where species have the potential to invade enables land managers to focus monitoring efforts. In this paper, we compared two simple types of models to predict the potential distributions of three non-native invasive plants (Geranium robertianum, Hedera spp., and Ilex aquifolium) in the contiguous USA. We developed models based on the climatic requirements of the species as reported in the literature (literature-based) and simple climate envelope models based on the climate where the species already occur (observation-based). We then compared the …