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Prairie Reconstruction Unpredictability And Complexity: What Is The Rate Of Reconstruction Failures?, Jack E. Norland, Cami Dixon, Diane Larson, Kristine Askerooth, Benjamin A. Geaumont

USGS Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center

The outcomes of prairie reconstructions are subject to both unpredictability and complexity. Prairie, tallgrass, and mixed grass reconstruction is defined as the planting of a native herbaceous seed mixture composed of multiple prairie species (10 or more) in an area where the land has been heavily cultivated or anthropogenically disturbed. Because of the unpredictability and complexity inherent in reconstructions, some outcomes end up being failures dominated by exotic species. We propose that these failures follow a fat-tailed distribution as found in other complex systems. Fat-tailed distributions follow the Pareto principle, where 80% of the time reconstructions work as expected but …