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Predicting Plant Extinction Based On Species-Area Curves In Prairie Fragments With High Beta Richness, Brian J. Wilsey, Leanne M. Martin, H. Wayne Polley

United States Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service / University of Nebraska-Lincoln: Faculty Publications

Species-area relationships and island biogeography theory are commonly used to predict how species richness will decline with fragmentation. There are a variety of largely untested assumptions in these approaches, including the assumptions that populations are distributed uniformly before fragmentation, and that local extinctions are due to effects of small population sizes. If populations are not distributed uniformly, then populations can be abundant locally but rare globally. This would cause extinction rates to be smaller than predicted.We tested extinction theory by developing estimates of the number of plant species that should be present in small tallgrass prairie fragments and then testing …