Life Sciences Commons^™

Computing For Numeracy: How Safe Is Your Covid-19 Social Bubble?, Charles Connor

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has led many people to form social bubbles. These social bubbles are small groups of people who interact with one another but restrict interactions with the outside world. The assumption in forming social bubbles is that risk of infection and severe outcomes, like hospitalization, are reduced. How effective are social bubbles? A Bayesian event tree is developed to calculate the probabilities of specific outcomes, like hospitalization, using example rates of infection in the greater community and example prior functions describing the effectiveness of isolation by members of the social bubble. The probabilities are solved for two contrasting …

From R0 To The Herd: A Review Of The Rules Of Contagion, By Adam Kucharski, Nathan D. Grawe

Numeracy

Adam Kucharski. 2020. The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread--and Why They Stop; (London: Profile Books, Ltd.). Hardback ISBN 978-17-88-16019-3. E-book ISBN 978-17-82-83430-4.

Kucharski's well-timed Rules of Contagion provides an introduction to the mathematical and epidemiological principles behind contagious phenomenon. While the author's primary expertise stems from work on biological epidemics, the book points to examples from a wide range of fields including finance, psychology, computer science, and criminology. As such, selections of the book could be used by faculty in a wide range of classes to show how our recent experience with a viral epidemic might add to …

Disease Introduction By Aboriginal Humans In North America And The Pleistocene Extinction, Zachary D. Nickell, Matthew D. Moran

Journal of Ecological Anthropology

While overhunting and climate change have been the major hypotheses to explain the late-Pleistocene New World megafaunal extinctions, the role of introduced disease has only received brief attention. Here, we review pre-Columbian diseases endemic to aboriginal Americans and evaluate their potential to cause large-scale mortality in Pleistocene mammals. Of the probable communicable diseases present in pre-Columbian times, we regard anthrax and tuberculosis as viable candidates. These two diseases demonstrate characteristics that could have made them deadly to immunologically naïve populations. Introduced disease, as a primary cause or interacting with overhunting and climate change, could have contributed to the decline and …