Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Life Sciences Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Agriculture

University of Nebraska - Lincoln

2024

Keyword
Publication

Articles 1 - 30 of 58

Full-Text Articles in Life Sciences

What Do Ongoing High Interest Rates Mean For Ag Producers?, Jay Parsons, John Hewlett, Jeff Trandel Jun 2024

What Do Ongoing High Interest Rates Mean For Ag Producers?, Jay Parsons, John Hewlett, Jeff Trandel

Center for Agricultural Profitability

As we progress through 2024, the agricultural sector faces significant economic pressures from persistently high borrowing costs.

In the crop sector, smaller cash buffers and the need to preserve working capital due to tightening profit margins resulting from lower crop prices and higher input costs contributed to an increase in farm operating loan activity in the first quarter of 2024 (Kansas City Federal Reserve). Farm machinery and equipment costs also rose considerably in the last few years. As a result, loans to purchase such equipment are larger and the higher interest rates only complicate the purchase decisions even further. Farmers …


2024 Nebraska Custom Rates: What To Charge?, Glennis Mcclure Jun 2024

2024 Nebraska Custom Rates: What To Charge?, Glennis Mcclure

Center for Agricultural Profitability

The 2024 Nebraska Custom Rates Report, which offers insights for agricultural producers and service providers, is now available through Nebraska Extension and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Center for Agricultural Profitability. The report, published at cap.unl.edu/customrates, compiles survey data from 159 respondents, providing current market rates for 138 different custom operations and services across Nebraska.

This comprehensive resource serves as an essential guide for those offering and seeking custom agricultural services. While the report offers a detailed overview of market trends, custom service providers are encouraged to consider their own operational costs when determining their rates.

Agricultural custom rate charges …


From Australia To Nebraska: Researching Social Value, Marilyn R. Schlake, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Jean Ann Fischer, Michelle Krehbiel, Randy Saner Jun 2024

From Australia To Nebraska: Researching Social Value, Marilyn R. Schlake, Cheryl A. Burkhart-Kriesel, Jean Ann Fischer, Michelle Krehbiel, Randy Saner

Cornhusker Economics

Globally, there is a growing body of research on social capital through the lens of social value, or how the social connections translate into actions with tangible outcomes impacting livelihoods and well-being. In the United States, social value is a relatively new perspective that will add to the social capital discussion.


Nebline, Nov./Dec. 2023 Jun 2024

Nebline, Nov./Dec. 2023

NEBLINE Newsletter Archive from Nebraska Extension in Lancaster County

Students Engaged in Culinary Experience With Local and Indigenous Foods

Recipes of the Month: Brownie Batter Hummus and Bison Pizza Topping by Alyssa Havlovic

Time to Order Tree Seedlings

Love Gardening? Become a Master Gardener!

Garden Guide: Things to Do This Month

ProHort Lawn & Landscape Update

Upcoming Green Industry Conferences

Problematic Frozen Pipes Can be Prevented With Routine, Pre-Winter Maintenance by Becky Schuerman

Successful Farmer Series Will Dig Into Cropping Systems Hot Topics

Cover Crop Grazing Conference, Nov. 7

Pester the Pests or Leave the Leaves? by Kait Chapman

Promoting Language Development in Young Children by Hayley Jackson

Heart …


2021 Nebraska Feedlot Labor Survey, Kimberly J. Enger, Elliott James Dennis, Galen E. Erickson, Andrea Watson Jun 2024

2021 Nebraska Feedlot Labor Survey, Kimberly J. Enger, Elliott James Dennis, Galen E. Erickson, Andrea Watson

Center for Agricultural Profitability

The Nebraska Feedlot Labor and Management survey, conducted by Nebraska Extension and Nebraska Cattlemen., reveals notable changes in labor costs and compensation within the state's feedlot industry. From 2015 to 2021, total employee compensation across all feedlots nearly doubled, highlighting significant financial shifts in the sector. Despite this increase, wages have not kept pace with inflation, indicating ongoing economic challenges. The survey, which also sheds light on hiring difficulties and management practices, provides a crucial benchmark for feedlot operators to navigate labor costs and industry trends effectively.


Violent Conflict Drives World Hunger And Food Insecurity, E. Wesley F. Peterson Jun 2024

Violent Conflict Drives World Hunger And Food Insecurity, E. Wesley F. Peterson

Cornhusker Economics

The World Food Program (WFP) with support from the United States and other countries works to provide food to those in need as a result of conflict, adverse climate effects, poverty, and government mismanagement. It is limited in what it can do, however, by budget constraints and rising food prices. On top of the financial issues, the delivery of food assistance is particularly complicated in areas of conflict where warring adversaries often hijack food supplies intended for the other side. While it is illegal under International Humanitarian Law to use starvation as a weapon of war, Dzerowicz (2023) has identified …


Nebline, June/July 2024 Jun 2024

Nebline, June/July 2024

NEBLINE Newsletter Archive from Nebraska Extension in Lancaster County

Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Facts Related to Drinking Water by Becky Schuerman

Tar Spot is an Emerging Corn Disease in Eastern Nebraska by John Nelson

Nutrition Education for Refugee and Immigrant Families in Lincoln by Emily Gratopp

Recipe of the Month: Biryani by Emily Gratopp

Garden Guide: Things to Do This Month

Sudden Wilt and Death in Tomatoes by Sarah Browning

Sun's Out, Fun's Out: Keeping Your Little One Safe This Summer by Hayley Perez

Protect Yourself from Bed Bugs by Kait Chapman

Heart of 4-H Volunteer Award: Netsy Barent and Jessica Marsh

Nebraska 4-H Foundation Scholarship Winners

Learn …


Aging In Place In Rural Nebraska: Homecare Worker Cooperatives, Cythia Houlden May 2024

Aging In Place In Rural Nebraska: Homecare Worker Cooperatives, Cythia Houlden

Center for Agricultural Profitability

In 2022, the Nebraska Cooperative Development Center (NCDC), in partnership with the Northwest Cooperative Development Center of Washington state, introduced a six-week Homecare Worker Cooperative Academy designed to take caregivers through the worker cooperative development process. Topics covered by the academy included democracy in the workplace, business basics, marketing and member engagement.

The impetus for the academy was the realization that Nebraska — and the U.S. as a whole — are facing a potential elder care crisis.


The Basics Of Loans For Farmers And Ranchers, Jessica Groskopf May 2024

The Basics Of Loans For Farmers And Ranchers, Jessica Groskopf

Center for Agricultural Profitability

Borrowing a loan can be a useful tool for farmers and ranchers, especially to fill in gaps when cash or working capital is short to cover current obligations or to make necessary or planned capital purchases. Before signing for a loan, understand the loan terms and repayment requirements as spelled out in the loan documents. This article defines and explains important lending terminology and considerations for farmers and ranchers.


The North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center, Part Iii: Outcomes And Impacts, Bradley D. Lubben, Christine Lockert, Sheila Aikanathan Johnson, Milan Chauhan May 2024

The North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center, Part Iii: Outcomes And Impacts, Bradley D. Lubben, Christine Lockert, Sheila Aikanathan Johnson, Milan Chauhan

Cornhusker Economics

The North Central Extension Risk Management Education (ERME) Center has existed since 2001 to help support producer-focused agricultural risk management education across the twelve-state North Central Region. The Center works together with centers in other regions of the country to implement a comprehensive program of needs assessment, regional grantmaking, capacity building, and evaluation and reporting to support projects that help producers manage risk and document the outcomes and impacts of those projects.

The last two Cornhusker Economics articles have described the Center and its activities and have highlighted the successes of some recently funded projects. This article concludes the discussion …


Adopting Yield-Improving Practices To Meet Maize Demand In Sub-Saharan Africa Without Cropland Expansion, Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Fatima A. M. Tenorio, Nester Mashingaidze, Alex Sananka, Stephen Aston, Jonathan J. Ojeda, Patricio Grassini May 2024

Adopting Yield-Improving Practices To Meet Maize Demand In Sub-Saharan Africa Without Cropland Expansion, Fernando Aramburu-Merlos, Fatima A. M. Tenorio, Nester Mashingaidze, Alex Sananka, Stephen Aston, Jonathan J. Ojeda, Patricio Grassini

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Maize demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase 2.3 times during the next 30 years driven by demographic and dietary changes. Over the past two decades, the area croppedwithmaize has expanded by 17million hectares in the region, with limited yield increase. Following this trend could potentially result in further maize cropland expansion and the need for imports to satisfy domestic demand. Here, we use data collected from 14,773 smallholder fields in the region to identify agronomic practices that can improve farm yield gains. We find that agronomic practices related to cultivar selection, and nutrient, pest, and crop management can …


Ideas For Estate And Transition Planning: Gift Leaseback, Jessica Groskopf May 2024

Ideas For Estate And Transition Planning: Gift Leaseback, Jessica Groskopf

Center for Agricultural Profitability

Simply gifting assets helps reduce estate value and potential taxes for the owners and increase the wealth of the heirs. However, some families are hesitant to engage in gifting strategies because the farm or the ranch needs access to those assets to remain viable. This article expands on gifting strategies by combining gifts with a lease agreement.


North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center Helps Producers Manage Risks, Christine Lockert, Sheila Aikanathan Johnson, Bradley D. Lubben May 2024

North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center Helps Producers Manage Risks, Christine Lockert, Sheila Aikanathan Johnson, Bradley D. Lubben

Cornhusker Economics

Established in 2001, the North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center (NCERMEC) has a long history of supporting risk management education programs serving producers in the region. Located at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Agricultural Economics Department, the Center is one of four regional Extension Risk Management Education (ERME) Centers located throughout the country. ERME is funded through USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) and was authorized by the Agricultural Risk Protection Act of 2000. The fundamental purpose of the ERME program is to educate producers to manage risk and position their farm or ranch for future growth and …


Utilization Of The NuTrack System To Objectively Evaluate Changes In Active And Passive Behaviors Of Group-Housed Nursery Pigs Exposed To An Endotoxin Challenge, Aaron Holliday May 2024

Utilization Of The NuTrack System To Objectively Evaluate Changes In Active And Passive Behaviors Of Group-Housed Nursery Pigs Exposed To An Endotoxin Challenge, Aaron Holliday

Department of Animal Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study aimed to evaluate the changes in activity of group-housed, newly weaned pigs challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS). At weaning, pigs (n = 192, 5.73 ± 1.8 kg) were stratified by sex, litter, and body weight (BW) and randomly assigned to one of three treatments (16 pigs/pen, 4 pens/treatment): 1) Saline-injected (SAL), 2) 50% challenged [50%-LPS) – only half of the pigs in a pen (8 pigs) were challenged with LPS and 3) 100% challenged (100%-LPS) – all pigs in a pen were challenged with LPS. Pigs in the SAL and 32 in the 50%-LPS treatment received a 3.0 …


Adding Parasite Resistance To A Hair Sheep Breeding Objective, Bob Forbes May 2024

Adding Parasite Resistance To A Hair Sheep Breeding Objective, Bob Forbes

Department of Animal Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The U.S. Hair Sheep Index was designed to increase total weight of lamb weaned per ewe lambing (TW) using estimated breeding values (EBV) for direct (DWWT) and maternal (MWWT) weaning weight, and number of lambs born (NLB) and weaned (NLW), as selection criteria. Producers are interested in adding post-weaning fecal egg count EBV (PFEC), an indicator of parasite resistance, to the index to achieve genetic change in both TW and PFEC.

First, the effects of adding PFEC alongside TW to the breeding objective of indexes that used either phenotypes or EBV as selection criteria were studied. Since MWWT is …


Proposing Urban Agroforestry Designs For Lincoln, Nebraska: A Model From Berlin, Germany, Noah Johnson May 2024

Proposing Urban Agroforestry Designs For Lincoln, Nebraska: A Model From Berlin, Germany, Noah Johnson

Honors Theses

Given the threat of a worsening climate crisis, there is a strong need for community and ecosystem resilience. Diverse urban agroforestry systems have the potential to accomplish both and meet many of the objectives outlined in the city of Lincoln, Nebraska’s climate action plan. Additionally, Berlin, Germany could provide an effective model for Lincoln in this regard given the city’s extensive history of established urban agroforestry systems. The objective of this study then is to develop a design for an urban agroforestry site modeled on Berlin’s allotment gardens and tailored to Lincoln’s needs. The methods for creating this design included …


The Future Of The Organization Of The Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mikayla Gross May 2024

The Future Of The Organization Of The Petroleum Exporting Countries, Mikayla Gross

Honors Theses

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a multinational and intergovernmental organization that dictates the petroleum exportation policies of 13 countries: Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela (About Us, 2023). The mission of OPEC is to ensure a stable supply of petroleum through its shared policies for its Member Countries and consumers (Our Mission, 2023). Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela founded OPEC in 1960 under the foundations and principles that dictated the international world order. Those foundations and principles …


Feeding Dried Distillers Grains With Solubles To Lactating Dairy Cattle: Whole Animal Energy Utilization And Manure Biogas Production, Grant Michael Fincham May 2024

Feeding Dried Distillers Grains With Solubles To Lactating Dairy Cattle: Whole Animal Energy Utilization And Manure Biogas Production, Grant Michael Fincham

Department of Animal Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

When DDGS are fed to lactating dairy cattle, the observed response in energy supply, milk production, and methane production varies among studies. One potential reason for these observed discrepancies is the nature of the diet formulation itself. Furthermore, little research has been conducted to examine how dietary changes can affect dairy cattle manure composition and methane production in an anaerobic manure digester. In order to gain a better understanding of these topics, we conducted two experiments. The first experiment was conducted to test how the manipulation of lactating dairy cattle diets affects energy utilization, milk production, methane production, and manure …


Next-Generation Crop Monitoring Technologies: Case Studies About Edge Image Processing For Crop Monitoring And Soil Water Property Modeling Via Above-Ground Sensors, Nipuna Chamara May 2024

Next-Generation Crop Monitoring Technologies: Case Studies About Edge Image Processing For Crop Monitoring And Soil Water Property Modeling Via Above-Ground Sensors, Nipuna Chamara

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents from University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has advanced rapidly in the past two decades. Internet of Things (IoT) technology has advanced rapidly during the last decade. Merging these two technologies has immense potential in several industries, including agriculture.

We have identified several research gaps in utilizing IoT technology in agriculture. One problem was the digital divide between rural, unconnected, or limited connected areas and urban areas for utilizing images for decision-making, which has advanced with the growth of AI. Another area for improvement was the farmers' demotivation to use in-situ soil moisture sensors for irrigation decision-making due to inherited installation difficulties. As Nebraska …


Artificial Insemination And Fetal Programming In Beef Production Systems, Dempster Christenson May 2024

Artificial Insemination And Fetal Programming In Beef Production Systems, Dempster Christenson

Department of Animal Science: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Pregnancy to artificial insemination and late gestation fetal programming of the next calf crop are central to genetic development, reproductive longevity, calf crop productivity, and efficiency of cow/calf ranching. The purposes of this research are to find methods to improve pregnancy rate to artificial insemination, the growth and reproductive health of pregnant heifers, and the productivity of their offspring. In the first of four studies we found that extending the period of progesterone administration in an estrus synchronization protocol did not significantly hasten estrus response or increase pregnancy rate to artificial insemination, but timing of estrus within the melengestrol acetate …


Establishment Of Wildflower Islands To Enhance Roadside Health, Ecological Value, And Aesthetics, Jackson Ebbers May 2024

Establishment Of Wildflower Islands To Enhance Roadside Health, Ecological Value, And Aesthetics, Jackson Ebbers

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Roadsides provide an abundant opportunity to increase connectivity of fragmented landscapes with diminishing floral resources for pollinating insects. The ecological value of these sites is often overlooked as quality habitat for pollinators, particularly monarch butterflies, which have been experiencing severe declines due to loss of habitat and loss of milkweeds that provide food for their larvae. Land managers across the nation are realizing the potential of roadsides to provide high quality floral resources for the benefit of insects and other wildlife. Current wildflower seed mixes used by state transportation departments are often low diversity and may only be implemented following …


Nebline, May 2024 May 2024

Nebline, May 2024

NEBLINE Newsletter Archive from Nebraska Extension in Lancaster County

Weed Control in Pastures and Hayfields by John Nelson

Navigating Nutrition Information: Separating Fact from Fiction by Alyssa Havlovic

Recipe of the Month: Pepper Steak Sandwich by Alyssa Havlovic

Care for New Bedding Plants by Sarah Browning

Garden Guide: Things to Do This Month

Cash Rent Survey

No Matter Where You Live, Submit a Request Before You Dig! by Becky Schuerman

4-H Achievement Celebration

8 Lancaster County 4-H’ers Modeled Their Sewn Garments at Omaha Fashion Week

4-H Events Open to All Youth

Support 4-H by Eating Out, May 1 & 2

Support 4-H During “Give to Lincoln Day,” May 30 …


Overexpression Of Msdreb1c Modulates Growth And Improves Forage Quality In Tetraploid Alfalfa (Medicago Sativa L.), Yangyang Zhang, Zhen Wang, Fan Zhang, Xue Wang, Yajing Li, Ruicai Long, Mingna Li, Xianyang Li, Quanzhen Wang, Qingchuan Yang, Junmei Kang Apr 2024

Overexpression Of Msdreb1c Modulates Growth And Improves Forage Quality In Tetraploid Alfalfa (Medicago Sativa L.), Yangyang Zhang, Zhen Wang, Fan Zhang, Xue Wang, Yajing Li, Ruicai Long, Mingna Li, Xianyang Li, Quanzhen Wang, Qingchuan Yang, Junmei Kang

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

DREB has been reported to be involved in plant growth and response to environmental factors. However, the function of DREB in growth and development has not been elucidated in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), a perennial tetraploid forage cultivated worldwide. In this study, an ortholog of MtDREB1C was characterized from alfalfa and named MsDREB1C accordingly. MsDREB1C was significantly induced by abiotic stress. The transcription factor MsDREB1C resided in the nucleus and had self-transactivation activity. The MsDREB1C overexpression (OE) alfalfa displayed growth retardation under both long-day and short-day conditions, which was supported by decreased MsGA20ox and upregulated MsGA2ox in the OE …


Buying Revenue Protection (Rp) Versus Buying The Rp With Harvest Price Exclusion (Rphpe) Version Of Multi-Peril Crop Insurance, Matt Stockton, Shannon Sand Apr 2024

Buying Revenue Protection (Rp) Versus Buying The Rp With Harvest Price Exclusion (Rphpe) Version Of Multi-Peril Crop Insurance, Matt Stockton, Shannon Sand

Cornhusker Economics

In a conversation with one of the TAPS participants about Multi-Peril Crop Insurance (MPCI) he suggested that you would never recommend RPHPE, due to the risk associated with a higher fall harvest price compared to the spring or predicted price. Since the year 2000, this has occurred about one-third of the time. This price reversal may alter indemnity size considerably, depending on which insurance is selected and if one qualifies for an indemnity. The discussion with the TAPS participant focused on the concern of risk exposure from pre-selling uninsured grain due to an unexpected increase in harvest price. This relates …


Net Farm Income Impacts Net Worth Growth, Glennis Mcclure Apr 2024

Net Farm Income Impacts Net Worth Growth, Glennis Mcclure

Center for Agricultural Profitability

The beginning of the year is busy for businesses in finalizing records and filing annual income taxes. Farm and ranch operations are no exception. Beyond the net income or loss showing on the farm’s Schedule F, analyzing the true picture of the operation’s net farm income, and earned net worth change for the year is important.

Preparing an income statement using accrual adjustments will tell us more about the operation’s profitability and performance beyond what income tax statements provide. The income statement tells the story of revenue, expenses, and depreciation between the beginning of year balance sheet and the end …


Ideas For Estate And Transition Planning: Gifting, Jessica Groskopf Apr 2024

Ideas For Estate And Transition Planning: Gifting, Jessica Groskopf

Center for Agricultural Profitability

For many farm and ranch families, bringing children or grandchildren into the operation is the ultimate goal. Successfully bringing additional family members into the operation may require some creativity as all parties need to maintain a viable standard of living. This article is part of a series that will highlight ideas and tactics for bringing another family member into the operation. If this is the first article you are seeing in this series, I would encourage you to go back to the previous article for background and additional guidance.

The second tactic to transfer wealth between generations is gifting. The …


Gamma Sigma Delta, Nebraska Chapter Newsletter, Issue #64 Spring 2024 Apr 2024

Gamma Sigma Delta, Nebraska Chapter Newsletter, Issue #64 Spring 2024

Gamma Sigma Delta, Nebraska Chapter: Newsletters

President-Elect's message, John R. Ruberson

Nominations form for Gamma Sigma Delta, Nebraska chapter

2023 Outstanding Graduate Student Award nominations solicitation

2023 Teaching Award nominations solicitation

2023 Research Award nomination solicitation

2023 Extension Award nomination solicitation

2023 Award of Merit nomination solicitation

Annual dues notice

List of active members with expiration terms

Membership renewal form

Outstanding Graduate and Undergraduate Student Award fund solicitation

In memoriam:

Raymond "Gene" White (October 10, 1930-May 28, 2021)

ΓΣΔ pledge


The Casnr L.I.N.K.S. Newsletter: Learning Innovation Network For K-12 Schools, Volume 3, Edition 4, April 2024, Bailey Feit, Tammy Mittelstet Apr 2024

The Casnr L.I.N.K.S. Newsletter: Learning Innovation Network For K-12 Schools, Volume 3, Edition 4, April 2024, Bailey Feit, Tammy Mittelstet

CASNR L.I.N.K.S. Newsletter

The purpose of this L.I.N.K.S. newsletter is to provide a monthly update of opportunities and resources for K-12 schools to connect with the University of Nebraska's CASNR Food, Energy, Water, and Societal Systems (FEWS²) programs and partners.

Included in this edition:

K-12 curriculum and resources

Join us at Youth Energy Leadership Camp, July 22-26, 2024

Summer Discovery Day camp, Morrill Hall, June 3-August 2

Explore Food Science summer camps 2024

Save the date: Haskell Ag Lab family field day, August 7, 2024

Other upcoming events

Educator workshops

Compact Teacher Summit-Haskell Ag Lab, Wheat variety field day-High Plains Lab, NAYI conference-East …


Nebraska Women In Agriculture Conference Marks 39 Years, Ryan Evans, Sarah Treffer, Jessica Groskopf Mar 2024

Nebraska Women In Agriculture Conference Marks 39 Years, Ryan Evans, Sarah Treffer, Jessica Groskopf

Cornhusker Economics

The Nebraska Women in Agriculture program marked 39 years of educating and empowering females in farming, ranching, and agribusiness, with nearly 380 people attending its annual conference on February 22 and 23, 2024 in Kearney, Nebraska, with a pre-conference session held on February 21. Including 25 workshops, 5 keynotes, and activities to help learn about risk management, farm and ranch improvement, and successful business practices.


Will Saf Turbocharge The Corn Ethanol Market?, Richard Perrin, Lilyan Fulginiti, Felipe Miranda De Souza Almeida Mar 2024

Will Saf Turbocharge The Corn Ethanol Market?, Richard Perrin, Lilyan Fulginiti, Felipe Miranda De Souza Almeida

Cornhusker Economics

The long-run outlook for the corn ethanol industry is questionable, due to a transition to electric and hybrid vehicles. One source of hope for the long run is the potential demand for producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). SAF is a key component in the United States Aviation Climate Action Plan, a path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation industry by 2050. Demand for ethanol for SAF offers hope to the ethanol industry, but it depends a great deal on policy decisions that are being made now. Here we sketch out this story.

Based on the information available …