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Useful Global-Change Scenarios: Current Issues And Challenges, Edward A. Parson
Useful Global-Change Scenarios: Current Issues And Challenges, Edward A. Parson
Articles
Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific …
Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, And Adaptation In The United States: Building A Capacity For Assessment, Edward A. Parson, Robert W. Corell, Eric J. Barron, Virginia Burkett, Anthony Janetos, Linda Joyce, Thomas R. Karl, Michael C. Maccracken, Jerry Melillo, M. Granger Morgan, David S. Schimel, Thomas Wilbanks
Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, And Adaptation In The United States: Building A Capacity For Assessment, Edward A. Parson, Robert W. Corell, Eric J. Barron, Virginia Burkett, Anthony Janetos, Linda Joyce, Thomas R. Karl, Michael C. Maccracken, Jerry Melillo, M. Granger Morgan, David S. Schimel, Thomas Wilbanks
Articles
Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. …