Law Commons^™

The Incompatibility Of Due Process And Naked Statistical Evidence, G. Alexander Nunn

Vanderbilt Law Review

Qualitative evidence is a cornerstone of the modern trial system. Parties often invoke eyewitness testimony, character witnesses, or other forms of direct and circumstantial evidence when seeking to advance their case in the courtroom, enabling jurors to reach a verdict after weighing two competing narratives.' But what if testimonial, experience-based evidence were removed from trials? In a legal system that draws its legitimacy from centuries of tradition-emphasizing notions of fairness even above absolute accuracy. Would a jury, not to mention the public at large, reject a verdict that imposes liability or guilt on a defendant in the complete absence of …

A Practical Solution To The Reference Class Problem, Edward K. Cheng

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

The "reference class problem" is a serious challenge to the use of statistical evidence that arguably arises every day in wide variety of cases, including toxic torts, property valuation, and even drug smuggling. At its core, it observes that statistical inferences depend critically on how people, events, or things are classified. As there is (purportedly) no principle for privileging certain categories over others, statistics become manipulable, undermining the very objectivity and certainty that make statistical evidence valuable and attractive to legal actors. In this paper, I propose a practical solution to the reference class problem by drawing on model selection …

Proportional Liability: Statistical Evidence And The Probability Paradox, David A. Fischer

Vanderbilt Law Review

Numerous writers have proposed modifying traditional tort rules to permit plaintiffs to recover from a defendant who contributed to the risk of causing the plaintiff's harm without proving that the defendant actually caused the harm. These proposals would determine recovery by multiplying the plaintiff's total damages by the percentage chance that the defendant caused the damages, thereby giving her a portion of her damages.

Although these proposals for proportional liability take many forms, they may be divided into three major categories. The "proportional damage recovery" category would permit a plaintiff to recover a portion of her damages only after she …