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Predicting The Frequency Of Large Public Company Bankruptcies, Patrick Liu

Patrick Liu

From 1980 to 2010, the number of large corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. spanned the gamut from five in 1981 to ninety-seven in 2001. In 2009, there were ninety-one large corporate bankruptcies. Past researchers have used firm-specific characteristics to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy for a given firm. However, limited research exists regarding which factors can explain nationwide fluctuations in the number of large corporate bankruptcies. Because macroeconomic variables pose systematic risk for all firms, macroeconomic variables’ yearly variations could shed light on bankruptcy filings’ yearly variations. Moreover, utilizing lagged variables, using the prior year’s change in a macroeconomic variable, …