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Time-Phasing Rdt&E In Air Force Acquisitions, Trevor A. Bills
Time-Phasing Rdt&E In Air Force Acquisitions, Trevor A. Bills
Theses and Dissertations
Time-phasing describes the process of estimating expenditure profiles for multi-year RDT&E acquisition programs. The AFCAH states that one approach to producing a time-phased estimate is with the use of S-curve distributions. These S-curves are most typically modeled as Weibull, Rayleigh, or Beta distributions. Many prior studies have been completed to better understand which of the three distributions is best suited to time-phasing RDT&E programs, and what program characteristics significantly explain variance in the distributional parameters. Those prior studies utilized either contractor-supplied data or SARs, and typically found the Weibull to be the best performing distribution. This paper makes novel use …