Law Commons^™

Time-Phasing Rdt&E In Air Force Acquisitions, Trevor A. Bills

Theses and Dissertations

Time-phasing describes the process of estimating expenditure profiles for multi-year RDT&E acquisition programs. The AFCAH states that one approach to producing a time-phased estimate is with the use of S-curve distributions. These S-curves are most typically modeled as Weibull, Rayleigh, or Beta distributions. Many prior studies have been completed to better understand which of the three distributions is best suited to time-phasing RDT&E programs, and what program characteristics significantly explain variance in the distributional parameters. Those prior studies utilized either contractor-supplied data or SARs, and typically found the Weibull to be the best performing distribution. This paper makes novel use …

Copyright And Attribution Guide, Version 1.0, Air Force Institute Of Technology

AFIT Documents

The purpose of this document is to establish a guide on the use of copyrighted material, the attribution of source material, copyright protection of covered works (limited applicability only for civilian faculty), and to educate AFIT personnel on important aspects of copyright law. This guide is intended for all AFIT employees, including all AFIT faculty, staff, contractors, and students, as well as all students reporting to AFIT regardless of the school they are attending.

Engineering Change Orders In Space Programs: "What Are The Odds?", Aaron Noel D. Santos

Theses and Dissertations

There has been little empirical evidence and vague official guidance published to inform the Department of Defense (DOD) acquisition community on the cost growth effects of engineering change orders (ECO) on their programs. The information is especially scarce when it comes to understanding those effects in space programs. Utilizing previous research to our advantage, we explore factors that may explain ECO-related cost growth including program size, acquisition phase, the number of modifications to a contract, contract type, and specific space commodity assets. Using non-parametric analysis, contingency tables, and odds ratio tests, these were found to be significant factors (except acquisition …

Salvaging Value From The Measure Of "Requirements Volatility" In The Dod's Software Resources Data Report (Srdr), Robert T. Walker

Theses and Dissertations

The DoD and the software development industry as a whole has long dwelt over the idea of requirements volatility (RV). The DoD has toiled with this concept so much so that its guidance was modified four times over a 13 year span. In these changes, its policy completely transformed the what, how, and when regarding RV information. As a result, the volatility data it has received is quite varied and seemingly useless for anything more than anecdotal analysis. This study takes several approaches to salvage value from this data. It begins with a survey of the uncertain concept of volatility, …

Exploring Performance In Air Force Science And Technology Programs, Eric A. Plack, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick

Faculty Publications

Science and technology (S&T) programs serve an important function in the defense acquisition process as the initial phase leading to discovery and development of warfighting technology. The results of these programs impact the larger major defense acquisition programs, which integrate the technologies in subsequent phases of the life cycle. Despite this important role, little prior research has examined the performance of S&T programs. In this study, the authors investigate the impact of technological maturation as a critical success factor in Air Force S&T programs. The results suggest that S&T programs with mature technologies are more likely to experience above average …

Economic Moat: A Line Of Defense For The Defense Industry, Karina M. Fernando

Theses and Dissertations

Defense contractor financial performance is traditionally measured using accounting profit. In academic literature, accounting profit has been proxied through different applications of accounting rates of return. However, the use of these rates pose certain limitations. First, accounting rates of return have been applied inconsistently. Next, academic research has not typically assessed accounting returns against a firms opportunity costs. As a result, there is a literature gap in defense research that assesses whether defense contractors earn sustainable returns beyond the cost to produce those returns.

An Empirical Analysis Of Dod Construction Task Order Performance, Adam B. Teston, Tyler S. Stout

Theses and Dissertations

Cost and schedule overrun plague over 50 of all construction projects, engendering diminished available funding that leads to deferred maintenance and impaired award ability for needed projects. Though existing research attempts to identify overruns sources, the results are inconclusive and frequently differ. Accordingly, this research reviews DoD construction contract data from the past ten years to identify the contract attributes of 79,894 projects that correlate with superior performance for use in future project execution. This research starts with creating a database that houses the largest single source of construction contract information. The research then evaluates the data to determine if …

Use Of Factors In Development Estimates: Improving The Cost Analysis Toolkit, Matthew R. Markman, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

Factor Estimating is a technique commonly used by defense acquisition analysts to develop cost estimations. However, previous studies developing factors for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase of the life cycle are limited. This research expands the current toolkit for cost analysts by developing cost factors in previously unexplored areas. More specifically, over 400 cost reports are utilized to create new standard cost factors that are delineated by five categories: commodity type, contract type, contractor type, development type, and Service. The factors are developed for those elements that are common in a wide array of projects such as program …

Contractual Procurement Alternatives Of Air Force Contingency Pharmaceuticals: A Cost-Benefit Analysis, Adam J. Brubakken, John M. Dickens, Jason Andrerson, William A. Cunningham Iii

Faculty Publications

Purpose — This paper aims to explore effective supply chain principles, through the theory of transaction cost economics, as measures to improve current contingency pharmaceutical item shortfalls in the Air Force Medical Service (AFMS) Contingency Pharmaceutical Programme. Design/methodology/approach — In this research, AFMS contingency pharmaceutical data was collected from various databases, including the Joint Medical Asset Repository, Medical Contingency Requirements Workflow and the Medical Requirements List. Through the methodology of cost-benefit analysis, alternative sourcing and fulfilment practices are evaluated. Findings — The findings of this research indicate that the application of centralized purchasing principles, in an effort to leverage prime …

Analysis Of Military Construction Cost Growth In Usaf Major Defense Acquisition Programs, Emily E. Angell, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Alfred E. Thal Jr.

Faculty Publications

This study uses descriptive and inferential statistics to identify cost growth Analysis of Military Construction of military construction (MILCON) at the programmatic level, while bridging the gap between Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) estimates and actual project costs. Findings of this study aid the cost community with appropriate allocation of resources in developing these estimates. Overall, Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) appear to experience more negative growth (cost savings) in MILCON estimates on reviewed SARs— typically less than 0.2% of the total program cost. SAR estimates became more accurate from the first to last SAR in comparison to the total MILCON …

A Comparison Of Sbir Investment Methods: Afwerx Vs Legacy, Evan A. Gist

Theses and Dissertations

The AFWERX Open Topic (AOT) program uses funding from the United States Air Force’s (USAF) Small Business Innovation and Research (SBIR) budget to adapt commercial technology to USAF needs. The AOT approach to small business investment is markedly different from that of legacy SBIR investment methods. This research is a comparison of processes and outcomes for AOT and legacy SBIR. The first axis of comparison is on commercialization rates. Applying a legacy definition of commercialization on a sample of AOT contracts, we found AOT’s commercialization to be 37% (compared to an 8.8% for legacy SBIR). We caveat this finding by …

An Analysis Of Changing The Federal Age Requirement For A Commercial Driver’S License, Matthew L. Mangen

Theses and Dissertations

The United States trucking industry has been struggling with a driver shortage for decades (Mittal et al., 2018).Trucks are one of the most important modes of transportation in getting domestic freight from one point to another. The current shortage is expected to continue to grow at an alarming rate if nothing is done to change it (American Trucking Associations, 2017). Having a shortage of drivers will increase transportation costs and lead to delayed shipments. There has been a push to change the public policy to lower the age requirement for a Commercial Driver’s License to 18. This research explores how …

A Case For Open Mission Systems In Dod Aircraft Avionics, Michael J. Brown, R. David Fass, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The DOD is adopting open mission systems (OMS) as the future in the military aviation environment. OMS proponents promise reduced costs and truncated schedules through increased competition in the marketplace and reduced coding efforts. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have examined the success of these open architectures in the DOD. Therefore, we investigate costs and schedule for a recent DOD avionics OMS demonstration platform in comparison to 13 historically analogous programs.

Text Mining Analysis Of Acquisition Reforms And Expert Views, Amanda L. Mcgowin, Jonathan D. Ritschel, R. David Fass, Bradley C. Boehmke

Faculty Publications

Legislation, in the form of acquisition reforms, is historically enacted to address perceived cost, schedule, and performance problems in the defense acquisition system. Text mining is utilized to examine five major reforms and a compendium of views from 32 acquisition experts to identify commonalities and disconnects.

Cyber War And Deterrence: Applying A General Theoretical Framework, Isaac Nacita [*], Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

There is a saying that politicians and generals are always fighting the last war, which is emphasized when the weapons and characteristics of warfare are changing rapidly. However, if this is true, it is often not due to an inability to learn lessons from previous conflicts, but to “overlearn” or overcompensate for the failures and experiences of the past. In reality, this is not a learning problem but one of forming poor implications from historical events, which leads to poor applications of doctrine the next time around. The DOD now acknowledges that warfare has extended into cyberspace, and it is …

Likelihood And Cost Impact Of Engineering Change Requirements For Dod Contracts, James C. Ellis, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Shawn M. Valentine, Brandon Lucas, Ian S. Cordell

Faculty Publications

Purpose: There appears to be no empirical-based method in the literature for estimating if an engineering change proposal (ECP) will occur or the dollar amount incurred. This paper aims to present an empirically based approach to address this shortfall.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Using the cost assessment data enterprise database, 533 contracts were randomly selected via a stratified sampling plan to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP and the other to determine the expected median per cent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP was likely. Both models adopted a stepwise approach. A …

An Analysis Of Major Acquisition Reforms Through Text Mining And Grounded Theory Design, Amanda L. Mcgowin

Theses and Dissertations

Cost growth is an established phenomenon within Defense Acquisition that the US Government has attempted to abolish for decades through seemingly endless cycles of reform. Dozens of experts and senior leaders within the acquisition community have published their notions on the reasons for cost growth, nevertheless, legislation has yet to eradicate this presumed conundrum. For this reason, this research is aimed at identifying existing trends within past major Defense Acquisition Reform legislation, as well as in a compendium of views from leaders within the Defense Acquisition community on the efficacy of acquisition reform, to determine the possible disconnect. To accomplish …

An Analysis Of The Estimate At Complete For Department Of Defense Contracts, Deborah B. Kim

Theses and Dissertations

When contractors provide timely and reliable information on the status of a contract, both contractors and government program offices can provide an accurate estimate of a contract’s completion costs. This research shows that the cumulative cost performance indices provided by contractors and program offices are high and less accurate than those of previous years and/or that a significant amount of ACWP is being documented in the final portion of a contract. The high performance indices resulted in EACs that were low-balled during the majority of a contract’s life which shows a need to improve the use of EVM metrics for …

Estimating An Acquisition Program’S Likelihood Of Staying Within Cost And Schedule Bounds, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Program managers use prior experience to spot potential programmatic areas of concern. Augmenting this experience, the authors present an empirical procedure to estimate the likelihood of a program not exceeding two schedule and cost thresholds: (a) 15 percent of the initial total acquisition cost estimate from Milestone (MS) B to Initial Operating Capability (IOC); and (b) 15 percent of the estimated length (in months) between MS B and IOC—the second bound being 25 percent of the cost and schedule estimate. Using logistic regression and odds ratios, the authors analyze 49 Department of Defense programs and generally find that electronic system …

Modeling Median Will-Cost Estimates For Defense Acquisition Programs, Ryan Trudelle, Edward D. White, Clay Koschnick, Brandon Lucas

Faculty Publications

Purpose: The introduction of “should cost” in 2011 required all Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAP) to create efficiencies and improvements to reduce a program’s “will-cost” estimate. Realistic “will-cost” estimates are a necessary condition for the “should cost” analysis to be effectively implemented. Owing to the inherent difficulties in establishing a program’s will-cost estimate, this paper aims to propose a new model to infuse realism into this estimate.

Design/methodology/approach: Using historical data from 73 Departments of Defense programs as recorded in the selected acquisition reports (SARs), the analysis uses mixed stepwise regression to predict a program’s cost from Milestone B (MS …

Analyzing Cost Growth At Program Stages For Dod Aircraft, Scott J. Kozlak, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon Lucas, Michael J. Seibel

Faculty Publications

This research examines Cost Growth Factors (CGF) at various program stages for 30 Department of Defense aircraft programs. From Milestone (MS) B, the authors determine CGFs at the Critical Design Review (CDR), First Flight (FF), Development Test and Evaluation End, Initial Operational Capability (IOC), and Full Operational Capability. They find development CGFs are significantly larger than procurement CGFs. Additionally, cost growth primarily occurs early in the program. At CDR, which occurs on average at the 12 percent completion point of a program, aircraft programs had already experienced on average 15 percent of their total program cost growth. The first spike …

The Myth Of Strategic And Tactical Airlift, Jacob D. Maywald, Adam D. Reiman, Alan A. Johnson, Robert E. Overstreet

Faculty Publications

In the 21st century, our ability to quickly and decisively deliver combat forces and equipment is of the utmost importance in achieving our national security objectives. The swiftness and flexibility of the US Air Force’s mobility airlift fleet is the key to executing a rapid global mobility strategy. The operational effectiveness and efficiency of military air transportation relies on the expertise and intuition of Air Mobility Command’s (AMC) mobility planners. Working in coordination with the United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) and geographic combatant commands (GCC), AMC is responsible for the tasking and tracking of almost 900 daily mobility sorties worldwide. …

Brandishing Our Air, Space, And Cyber Swords: Recommendations For Deterrence And Beyond, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

This article examines how the nation could better prepare to deter aggressive action in space and cyberspace, and if necessary, prevail should deterrence fail. The key themes throughout this article include a strong need for space and cyber situational awareness, the need for an international attribution and escalation framework, and a national investment in space and cyber education, along with an updated national strategy and military doctrine. Although related, this article focuses on deterrence and avoids the topic of cyber coercion.

Acquisition Challenge: The Importance Of Incompressibility In Comparing Learning Curve Models, Justin R. Moore, John J. Elshaw, Adedeji B. Badiru, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

The Department of Defense (DoD) cost estimating methodology currently employs T. P. Wrights 75-plus-year-old learning curve formula. The goal of this research was to examine alternative learning curve models and determine if a more reliable and valid cost estimation method exists, which could be incorporated within the DoD acquisition environment. This study tested three alternative learning models (the Stanford-B model, DeJong's learning formula, and the S-Curve model) to compare predicted against actual costs for the F-15 A-E jet fighter platform. The results indicate that the S-Curve and DeJong models offer improvement over current estimation techniques, but more importantly and unexpectedly …

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …

Investigation Into The Ratio Of Operating And Support Costs To Life-Cycle Costs For Dod Weapon Systems, Gary L. Jones, Edward D. White, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel

Faculty Publications

Recent legislation, such as the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, requires a renewed emphasis on understanding Operating and Support (O&S) costs. Conventional wisdom within the acquisition community suggests a 70:30 cost ratio with respect to O&S and acquisition of an average weapon system. Using 37 Air Force and Navy programs, the authors estimate the mean overall ratio of O&S costs to acquisition costs to be closer to 55:45, although many weapon systems displayed significant deviation from this 55 percent average. Contributing factors such as life expectancy and acquisition strategy (i.e., new system or modification) affect this variance. Their …

Application Of Relational Contracting Methods To Federal Construction Projects, Travis R. Johnson

Theses and Dissertations

Relational contracting is a method designed to improve relationships between contracted parties. The federal construction sector was a leader in the development and implementation of an early form of relational contracting known as partnering. Since then, alliancing has emerged as the new evolution of relational contracts. While it provides many potential benefits to contracting parties, alliancing has not yet been utilized in federal construction procurement, which is subject to stringent regulations. A commercially available standard form alliancing contract was selected for analysis against the Federal Acquisition Regulation. Key practices that characterize the alliancing method were identified. Utilizing a panel of …

Using Earned Value Data To Detect Potential Problems In Acquisition Contracts, C. Grant Keaton

Theses and Dissertations

Government contractors report earned value (EV) information to government agencies in monthly Contract Performance Reports (CPR). Though major differences may exist in the data between subsequent CPRs, we know of no government effort to detect these occurrences. The identification of major changes may locate and isolate problems and thus prevent million and billion dollar cost and schedule overruns. In this study, we develop an approach to identify changes in the Cost Performance Index (CPI) and the Schedule Performance Index (SPI) that may indicate problems with contract performance. We find the detection algorithm indentifies changes in the CPI and the SPI …

Best Practices In Government Acquisition: A Test Of The Government Accountability Office’S Knowledge-Based Acquisition Theory, Dana C. Wyman Ii

Theses and Dissertations

The U.S. Government has looked for effective ways of reducing acquisition cost and schedule overruns for decades. The task of isolating the root cause of these overruns has been difficult. Consequently, it has been difficult for the Government to create effective policies that prevent overruns from recurring. In 1998, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) undertook this problem, and looked to successful DOD and commercial companies for solutions. They found that using mature technology, having complete product designs, and having production processes under control was critical to successfully developing new products. The GAO combined these concepts into a single acquisition practice …

An Investigation Of Knowledge Transfer And Retention In A Government Procurement Office, Garland T. Mobley

Theses and Dissertations

There is no measure for the loss of corporate memory. Organizations build a reservoir of knowledge in its employees, and this knowledge becomes a critical ingredient in an organization’s ability to carry out its mission. Knowledgeable people are extremely valuable and once they leave, their organizationally-applied knowledge leaves with them. This study introduces specific knowledge attributes that significantly impact effective tacit and explicit knowledge transfer and retention. Under this construct the proposed investigation explores a government program office to see if replacing experienced government employees with outsourced personnel impacts corporate knowledge retention. The study concludes that a loss of corporate …