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The Innocence Effect, Oren Gazal-Ayal, Avishalom Tor
The Innocence Effect, Oren Gazal-Ayal, Avishalom Tor
Oren Gazal-Ayal
Nearly all felony convictions—about 95%—follow guilty pleas, suggesting plea offers are very attractive compared to trials. Many scholars, in fact, argue plea bargains are too attractive and should be curtailed because they facilitate the wrongful conviction of innocents. Others contend plea offers only benefit innocent defendants, providing an alternative to the risk of a much harsher sentence at trial they may wish to avoid. Both detractors and supporters thus believe plea bargains often lead innocents to plead guilty. The two camps in the debate, moreover, also share the view that defendants’ culpability matters little for the rate of plea bargaining, …
Fairness And The Willingness To Accept Plea Bargain Offers, Oren Gazal-Ayal, Avishalom Tor, Stephen M. Garcia
Fairness And The Willingness To Accept Plea Bargain Offers, Oren Gazal-Ayal, Avishalom Tor, Stephen M. Garcia
Oren Gazal-Ayal
In contrast with the typical assumption in plea bargaining law and economics, we show defendants may reject plea offers based on fairness considerations. Specifically, offers where the sanction clearly appears excessive for the crime ("substantively unfair") and offers that appear inferior to those received by others in similar cases ("comparatively unfair") diminish defendants' wiliingness to accept plea offers (WTAP). Part 1 analyzes real-world data in Study 1 and reviews early experiments, all of which sugget substantive fairness impacts WTAP but do not control for important confounds. Part 2 therefore presents Studies 2-4 that confirm the independent impact of substantive fairness. …