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Automation And Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment, James Bessen
Automation And Jobs: When Technology Boosts Employment, James Bessen
Faculty Scholarship
Will new technologies cause industries to shed jobs, requiring novel policies to address mass unemployment? Sometimes productivity-enhancing technology increases industry employment instead. In manufacturing, jobs grew along with productivity for a century or more; only later did productivity gains bring declining employment. What changed? The elasticity of demand. Using data over two centuries for US textile, steel and auto industries, this paper shows that automation initially spurred job growth because demand was highly elastic. But demand later became satiated, leading to job losses. A simple model explains why this pattern might be common, suggesting that today's technologies may cause some …
Ai And Jobs: The Role Of Demand, James Bessen
Ai And Jobs: The Role Of Demand, James Bessen
Faculty Scholarship
In manufacturing, technology has sharply reduced jobs in recent decades. But before that, for over a century, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. What changed? Demand was highly elastic at first and then became inelastic. The effect of artificial intelligence (AI) on jobs will similarly depend critically on the nature of demand. This paper presents a simple model of demand that accurately predicts the rise and fall of employment in the textile, steel, and automotive industries. This model provides a useful framework for exploring how AI is likely to affect jobs over the next 10 or 20 …
More Machines, Better Machines...Or Better Workers?, James Bessen
More Machines, Better Machines...Or Better Workers?, James Bessen
Faculty Scholarship
How much of the rapid growth in labor productivity in nineteenth century cotton weaving arose from capital-labor substitution and how much from technical change? Using an engineering production function and detailed information on inventions, I find that factor substitution accounts for little growth. However, much of the growth and most of the apparent labor-saving bias arose not from inventions, but from improved labor quality — better workers spent less time monitoring the looms. The inventions themselves were almost technically neutral because innovations in general purpose technologies were capital-saving. Labor quality played a critical role in the persistent association between economic …
Accounting For Productivity Growth When Technical Change Is Biased, James Bessen
Accounting For Productivity Growth When Technical Change Is Biased, James Bessen
Faculty Scholarship
Solow (1957) decomposed labor productivity growth into two components that are independent under Hicks neutrality: input growth and the residual, representing technical change. However, when technical change is Hicks biased, input growth is no longer independent of technical change, leading to ambiguous interpretation. Using Solow's model, I decompose output per worker into globally independent sources and show that technical bias directly contributes to labor productivity growth above what is captured in the Solow residual. This contribution is sometimes large, generating rates of total technical change that substantially exceed the Solow residual, prompting a reinterpretation of some well-known studies.