Law Commons^™

Betting On Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets To Address Global Warming, Gary M. Lucas Jr, Felix Mormann

Felix Mormann

Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction markets to answer that crucial question. Prediction markets have a strong track record of outperforming other forecasting mechanisms across a wide range of contexts — from predicting election outcomes and economic trends to guessing Oscar winners. In the context of climate change, market participants could, for example, bet on important climate outcomes conditioned on the …

Betting On Climate Policy: Using Prediction Markets To Address Global Warming, Gary M. Lucas Jr, Felix Mormann

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction markets to answer that crucial question. Prediction markets have a strong track record of outperforming other forecasting mechanisms across a wide range of contexts — from predicting election outcomes and economic trends to guessing Oscar winners. In the context of climate change, market participants could, for example, bet on important climate outcomes conditioned on the …

Can Clean Energy Policy Promote Environmental, Economic, And Social Sustainability?, Felix Mormann

Felix Mormann

Two and a half decades of clean energy policymaking focused primarily on environmental and economic sustainability have yielded considerable environmental and economic benefits. Along the way, however, other policy considerations, such as the social sustainability of the transition to a cleaner, renewably fueled energy economy, have gone largely overlooked. As clean energy technologies continue to gain ever-greater traction in the United States and global energy economies, the social impacts of their enabling policies become more and more salient. Already, ratepayers, taxpayers, and other stakeholders who fear being left behind by the clean energy transition question the “fairness” of today’s renewable …

Voter Psychology And The Carbon Tax, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

Economists across the political spectrum argue that a carbon tax is the most effective and economically efficient policy for addressing climate change. Voters, however, strongly oppose the carbon tax and instead favor “green” subsidies and command-and-control regulations. If carefully designed, these policies might complement a carbon tax, but by themselves, they will make global warming mitigation incredibly expensive and perhaps even infeasible. Moreover, if poorly designed, subsidies and regulations can be counterproductive.

This Article argues that the public dislikes the carbon tax because the tax possesses attributes that make it psychologically unappealing relative to other climate policy instruments. The Article …

Behavioral Public Choice And The Carbon Tax, Gary M. Lucas Jr

Gary M. Lucas Jr.

In response to the historic Paris Agreement on climate change and to the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently finalized Clean Power Plan, economists and other climate policy experts have renewed the call for the United States to adopt a carbon tax. Opposition among the public presents a major obstacle. While a majority of the public supports government action on climate change, most people favor the use of “green” subsidies and command-and-control regulations—a fact that frustrates economists of all political stripes who contend that a carbon tax would be much cheaper and more effective. This Article argues that a cognitive bias known …

Curb Your Enthusiasm For Pigouvian Taxes, Victor Fleischer

Victor Fleischer

Pigouvian (or "corrective") taxes have been proposed or enacted on dozens of products and activities that may be harmful in excess: carbon, gasoline, fat, sugar, guns, cigarettes, alcohol, traffic, zoning, executive pay, and financial transactions, among others. Academics of all political stripes are mystified by the public’s inability to see the merits of using Pigouvian taxes more frequently to address serious social harms.

This enthusiasm for Pigouvian taxes should be tempered. A Pigouvian tax is easy to design—as a uniform excise tax—if one assumes that each individual causes the same amount of harm with each incremental increase in activity on …

The Key Stone In The Carbon Tariff Wall: The Alberta Oil Sands And The Legality Of Taxing Imports Based On Their Carbon Footprint, Mark L. Belleville

Mark L. Belleville

Can one nation—consistent with international trade law—tax imports or otherwise treat them differently based on the CO2 emitted in another country during production of the import? This Article analyzes the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), relevant World Trade Organization (WTO) decisions, and the considerable amount of scholarship regarding Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) and concludes that such treatment of imports is legally permissible. In early 2013, the European Union (E.U.) will vote on a proposed rule that seeks to classify crude oil coming into E.U. refineries based on “life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions,” including CO2 emitted during extraction. Canada, seeking …

Carbon Regulation And Its Impact On The Appalachian Basin: Why The Coal-Fired Energy Industry In Appalachia Should Embrace, Prepare For, And Help Shape A Comprehensive Legislative Scheme That Limits Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Mark L. Belleville

Mark L. Belleville

The premise of this article – the coal-fired energy industry in Appalachia should embrace, prepare for, and help shape a comprehensive federal legislative scheme that limits carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions – may sound counterintuitive. Why would an industry that emits greenhouse gases (GHGs) get on board with a national plan to limit GHG emissions? The reason is threefold. First, some form of regulation limiting emissions is inevitable. Second, in many respects, a comprehensive federal scheme is preferable to the current patchwork that exists. Finally, a comprehensive federal scheme can be tailored to be advantageous (or at least …