Engineering Commons^™

Lstm Forecasts For Smart Home Electricity Usage, Rosemary E. Alden, Huangjie Gong, Cristinel Ababei, Dan M. Ionel

Power and Energy Institute of Kentucky Faculty Publications

With increasing of distributed energy resources deployment behind-the-meter and of the power system levels, more attention is being placed on electric load and generation forecasting or prediction for individual residences. While prediction with machine learning based approaches of aggregated power load, at the substation or community levels, has been relatively successful, the problem of prediction of power of individual houses remains a largely open problem. This problem is harder due to the increased variability and uncertainty in user consumption behavior, which make individual residence power traces be more erratic and less predictable. In this paper, we present an investigation of …

Modeling Cascading Failures In Power Systems In The Presence Of Uncertain Wind Generation, Mir Hadi Athari

Theses and Dissertations

One of the biggest threats to the power systems as critical infrastructures is large-scale blackouts resulting from cascading failures (CF) in the grid. The ongoing shift in energy portfolio due to ever-increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES) may drive the electric grid closer to its operational limits and introduce a large amount of uncertainty coming from their stochastic nature. One worrisome change is the increase in CFs.

The CF simulation models in the literature do not allow consideration of RES penetration in studying the grid vulnerability. In this dissertation, we have developed tools and models to evaluate the impact …

Verification And Validation Of A Transient Heat Exchanger Model, Jayme Lee Carper

Browse all Theses and Dissertations

A statistical based verification and validation process is applied to the transient modeling of a shell and tube heat exchanger. A generic model of a heat exchanger was developed based on first principles as a sub-system of a larger thermal system model. This model was originally created without any experimental data, as it was not readily available. To provide the data necessary to apply the validation process, a thermal emulator was designed and built that allowed control of all system inputs to the heat exchanger, while also providing the instrumentation to record all required data. A wide test matrix was …

Generation Scheduling For Power Systems With Demand Response And A High Penetration Of Wind Energy, Guodong Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

With renewable energy sources and demand response programs expanding in many power systems, traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch approaches are inadequate. The power system is changing to one where there is control with uncertainty for both generation and load. Alternative power system scheduling methods capable of aggregating the uncertainty of wind power and demand response, while maintaining reliable and economic performance are investigated in this work. The research addresses four aspects of these changes.

First, a probabilistic method is proposed to maintain uniform system reliability level in the hour-ahead economic dispatch by quantifying different levels of required spinning reserve. …

Studies Of Economics And Stability With Variable Generation And Controllable Load, Hao Huang

Doctoral Dissertations

This work probes several aspects of the renewable resources and controllable loads. The investigation includes the impact of wind power in bidding process in a deregulated power market, the effect of load damping elements on power system frequency stability and security, and impact of controllable load on system operation from the viewpoint of economic volatility and physical security.

In the first part, new bidding models are developed under two schemes for wind generation to analyze the competition among generation companies (GENCOs) with transmission constraints considered. The proposed method employs the supply function equilibrium (SFE) to model a GENCO’s bidding strategy. …

Long Term Resource Planning For Electric Power Systems Under Uncertainty, Sarah M. Ryan, James D. Mccalley, David L. Woodruff

Sarah M. Ryan

Electric power systems are subject to uncertainties of many types and at many levels. In addition to the uncertain fuel prices, demand growth, and equipment outages included in traditional models, current trends portend increasing uncertainty due to such factors as the growth in generation from renewable sources which may be intermittent, the possibility of regulations to control carbon emissions, and the increasing price responsiveness of demand encouraged by smart grid technologies. This paper begins by discussing issues that confront electric system planners and explains the requirements for useful tools. We continue with a description of academic and commercial planning models …

Investments In Energy Technological Change Under Uncertainty, Ekundayo Shittu

Doctoral Dissertations 1896 - February 2014

This dissertation addresses the crucial problem of how environmental policy uncertainty influences investments in energy technological change. The rising level of carbon emissions due to increasing global energy consumption calls for policy shift. In order to stem the negative consequences on the climate, policymakers are concerned with carving an optimal regulation that will encourage technology investments. However, decision makers are facing uncertainties surrounding future environmental policy. The first part considers the treatment of technological change in theoretical models.

This part has two purposes: (1) to show-through illustrative examples-that technological change can lead to quite different, and surprising, impacts on the …