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An Application Of Bayesian Multilevel Model To Evaluate Variations In Stochastic And Dynamic Transition Of Traffic Conditions, Emmanuel Kidando, Ren Moses, Thobias Sando, Eren Erman Ozguven
An Application Of Bayesian Multilevel Model To Evaluate Variations In Stochastic And Dynamic Transition Of Traffic Conditions, Emmanuel Kidando, Ren Moses, Thobias Sando, Eren Erman Ozguven
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications
© 2019, The Author(s). This study seeks to investigate the variations associated with lane lateral locations and days of the week in the stochastic and dynamic transition of traffic regimes (DTTR). In the proposed analysis, hierarchical regression models fitted using Bayesian frameworks were used to calibrate the transition probabilities that describe the DTTR. Datasets of two sites on a freeway facility located in Jacksonville, Florida, were selected for the analysis. The traffic speed thresholds to define traffic regimes were estimated using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The GMM revealed that two and three regimes were adequate mixture components for estimating …
Incorporating Travel Time Reliability In Predicting The Likelihood Of Severe Crashes On Arterial Highways Using Non-Parametric Random-Effect Regression, Emmanuel Kidando, Ren Moses, Eren Erman Ozguven, Thobias Sando
Incorporating Travel Time Reliability In Predicting The Likelihood Of Severe Crashes On Arterial Highways Using Non-Parametric Random-Effect Regression, Emmanuel Kidando, Ren Moses, Eren Erman Ozguven, Thobias Sando
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications
© 2019 The Authors Travel time reliability (TTR) modeling has gain attention among researchers' due to its ability to represent road user satisfaction as well as providing a predictability of a trip travel time. Despite this significant effort, its impact on the severity of a crash is not well explored. This study analyzes the effect of TTR and other variables on the probability of the crash severity occurring on arterial roads. To address the unobserved heterogeneity problem, two random-effect regressions were applied; the Dirichlet random-effect (DRE) and the traditional random-effect (TRE) logistic regression. The difference between the two models is …