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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake
Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake
Theses and Dissertations
Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method …
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Theses and Dissertations
Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …
Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero
Persuasion, Political Warfare, And Deterrence: Behavioral And Behaviorally Robust Models, William N. Caballero
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation examines game theory models in the context of persuasion and competition wherein decision-makers are not completely rational by considering two complementary threads of research. The first thread of research pertains to offensive and preemptively defensive behavioral models. Research in this thread makes three notable contributions. First, an offensive modeling framework is created to identify how an entity optimally influences a populace to take a desired course of action. Second, a defensive modeling framework is defined wherein a regulating entity takes action to bound the behavior of multiple adversaries simultaneously attempting to persuade a group of decision-makers. Third, an …
Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger
Search And Rescue Operations Forecasting And Optimization, Zachary T. Hornberger
Theses and Dissertations
United States Coast Guard District 14 is responsible for the execution of eleven statutory missions across the Pacific region. Despite having the largest geographic area of responsibility (AOR), District 14 has command of among the fewest resources to accomplish these missions. When search and rescue (SAR) emergencies occur, these events take immediate priority because the ability to rapidly coordinate available assets can be the difference between saving or losing a life. Using historic records of SAR incidents for District 14, we leverage an approach called the stochastic zonal distribution model to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in emergency rates and response strategies …