Engineering Commons^™

Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery

Masters Theses

Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent, similarly sized watersheds within the same Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 6 basin. A Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a wide range of extreme precipitation events across the combined …

A Critical Review Of Climate Change On Coastal Infrastructure Systems, Gregory J. Howland Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is a response to climate threats identified by DoD report on Climate Change in 2019. A critical review of climate change literature related to coastal infrastructure was conducted to synthesize past research and to inform future research. This review intends to inform how climate change may impact infrastructure systems, how those impacts are evaluated, can the investigation be improved, and what can stakeholders learn from the outcomes. The end goal is to find climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation measures, or identify the easiest path to get to that end. The compiled information will inform civilian and military …

On A New Framework For Detecting, Classifying, And Forecasting Floods For Large-Scale Flood Risk Analysis, Equisha Glenn

Dissertations and Theses

Increasing trends in flooding events are projected to continue as climate changes have increased the chance of extreme weather events. Given the significant, damaging impacts of extreme floods, the ability to effectively model floods is crucial for risk management and mitigation of the impacts of these extreme flooding events. This dissertation presents a new framework for detecting and predicting large-scale flood risk in the United States using climate information. This methodology categorizes regional, simultaneous floods into an index that is used to forecast the risk of extreme flooding a season ahead. The index proposed herein, named the Spatial Flood Index …

Stability Of Low Crested And Submerged Breakwaters: A Reanalysis And Model Development, Christopher P. Burgess

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Low-crested and submerged structures (LCS) play an integral part in the stabilization of shorelines for recreational purposes, yet there are a plethora of empirical models and gaps in the understanding of their stability and damage progression. The objectives were: i) to evaluate the present formulae, ii) explore variable importance, iii) formulate a stability model, iv) extend the current datasets and v) explore a new model for LCS. The literature points to an increasing understanding of the initiation of damage of LCS and recent exploration of the shear stress-induced erosion (van Rijn, 2019). Assessment of two existing models (Kramer, 2006 and …

Impact Of Climate Change On Storms And Coastal Morphodynamics, Kelsey Perez

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Storms have been impacting coastal morphodynamics directly due to its intensifying effects over the years. Climate change has caused an exponential impact on storms and therefore morphodynamic changes in the coasts. A specific land that has constantly been threatened is Dauphin Island, a barrier island in Alabama. Over time, it has experienced a total land loss of 100 ft of shoreline over the past of 3 decades and an overall 16% land loss of the island due to the intensifying effects of storms due to a changing climate. In this study, we use Hurricane Ivan as an example. In order …

Variance Decomposition Of Forecasted Water Budget And Sediment Processes Under Changing Climate In Fluvial And Fluviokarst Systems, Nabil Al Aamery

Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering

Variance decomposition is the partitioning of different factors affecting the variance structure of a response variable. The present research focuses on future streamflow and sediment transport processes projections as the response variables. The authors propose using numerous climate factors and hydrological modeling factors that can cause any response variable to vary from historic to future conditions in any given watershed system. The climate modeling factors include global climate model, downscaling method, emission scenario, project phase, bias correction. The hydrological modeling factor includes hydrological model parametrization, and meteorological variable inclusion in the analysis. This research uses a wide spectrum of data, …

Modeling Response Of Water Quality To Land-Use And Climate Change In Lake Auburn, Me, Nicholas Messina

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the watershed and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake) to simulate physical mixing, …

Perceptions Of Vulnerability To Flooding, Hurricanes, And Climate Change On Grand Isle, Louisiana’S Only Inhabited Barrier Island, Lauren Miller

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study used in-depth interviews of permanent residents on Grand Isle, Louisiana, a remote barrier island, to better understand their perceptions of structural flood measures, non-structural responses to flooding and hurricanes, and perceptions of vulnerability to flooding, hurricanes, and climate change on a remote barrier island-Grand Isle, Louisiana. Residents' perceptions regarding the various structural measures implemented by the federal, state, and local government appeared mixed. Non-structural responses to flooding risks implemented at the household, community, state, and federal level continue to strengthen resiliency on Grand Isle. According to interviewees, aspects of environmental, rural, and economic vulnerability on Grand Isle impact …

Stormwater Infrastructure And The Threat Of Climate Change, Eric Mccaslin

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

The purpose of this report is to analyze the modernization of stormwater infrastructure systems and the growing impact of climate change on said systems. Growing population rates and increasing urban settlement are leading to the water demand approaching the water supply capacity. Climate change is the root of several potentially severe issues affecting water resources as well as the rapidly increasing coastal and urban populations including but not limited to rising sea levels and the increasing severity and frequency of storms. Many cities, especially older or low income ones, also may not have adequate systems in place to handle the …

Evaluating Policy And Climate Impacts On Water Resources Systems Using Coupled Human-Natural Models, Hassaan Furqan Khan

Doctoral Dissertations

Extensive human intervention in the terrestrial hydrosphere means that virtually every river basin globally reflects the interaction between human and natural hydrologic processes. Thus, sustainable watershed management needs to not only account for the diverse ways humans benefit from the environment but also incorporate the impact of human actions on the natural system. Informed policy making to address our water challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of these feedbacks and how they might be affected by future changes in climate. This work develops coupled human-natural models for improved surface water and groundwater management in water-scarce regions under future changes in climate. …

Flood Risk Assessment, Management And Perceptions In A Changing World, Katherine Schlef

Doctoral Dissertations

Floods are a global challenge that is increasing due to changes in climate and human populations. Using an interdisciplinary approach, this work contributes novel methodologies and knowledge to three key challenges associated with floods. The first chapter builds upon the atmospheric and statistical sciences to provide a general methodology for climate informed approaches to projecting long-term flood events based on large-scale ocean-atmospheric processes. The second chapter builds upon the engineering, decision analysis, and economics disciplines to integrate climate-informed projections with decision-scaling, a decision-making under uncertainty framework, to further flood risk management. The third chapter builds upon the social sciences to …

Investigating Physical Processes Associated With Chesapeake Bay And Changjiang Estuary, Arash Niroomandi

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Coastal and estuaries are landforms that not only have great impacts on large marine ecosystem, but also play a significant role in moderating or aggravating natural hazards and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. This dissertation explores some of the concerns associated with coasts and coastal systems. In the second chapter, a thirty seven year wave hindcast (1979-2015) in Chesapeake Bay using NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wind is presented. The long-term significant wave heights are generated by the third-generation nearshore wave model SWAN, which is validated using the wave height measurements at buoy stations …

Uncertainty Modeling In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Water Resources Management, Sohom Mandal

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has significant impacts on water resource systems. The objective of this study is to assess climate change impacts on water resource management. The methodology includes (a) the assessment of uncertainty introduced by choice of precipitation downscaling methods; (b) uncertainty assessment and quantification of the impact of climate change on projected streamflow; and (c) uncertainty in and impact of climate change on the management of reservoirs used for hydropower production. The assessment is conducted for two future time periods (2036 to 2065 and 2066 to 2095). The study area, Campbell River basin, British Columbia, Canada, consists of three reservoirs …

Proactive Assessment Of Climate Change And Contaminant Spill Impacts On Source Water Quality, Lillian C. Jeznach

Doctoral Dissertations

Managing the water quality of surface drinking water sources has become an increasingly difficult task for water suppliers due to increased watershed urbanization and climate change. Changes in source water quality may affect public perceptions, treatment effectiveness, and ultimately costs to treat water to drinking standards. Although there are increased threats to current and future drinking water quality, current approaches to managing these threats are typically reactionary. Prior detailed modeling efforts of hypothetical events that may impair raw water quality allow for an understanding of constituent fate and transport, including potential maximum concentrations and travel times to the drinking water …

Probability-Based Hurricane Resilience Evaluation And Retrofitting For Residential Community, Yadong Dong

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Wood residential construction is vulnerable to hurricanes, as evident in recent hurricane events. Many studies indicated that the changing climate may very likely alter hurricane patterns, which could lead to more severe hurricane damage to the wood residential construction that accounts for 90% of the residence in the USA. On the other hand, deterioration of material increases the chance of structural failure by reducing the structural capacity (e.g., corrosion of fasteners in roof panel could significantly reduce the withdrawal capacity of the roofing structure during hurricane events).

Currently, most hurricane damage estimations only focus on direct loss (e.g., structural loss). …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Evolution Of The Electrical Grid, Melissa Ree Allen

Doctoral Dissertations

Maintaining interdependent infrastructures exposed to a changing climate requires understanding 1) the local impact on power assets; 2) how the infrastructure will evolve as the demand for infrastructure changes location and volume and; 3) what vulnerabilities are introduced by these changing infrastructure topologies. This dissertation attempts to develop a methodology that will a) downscale the climate direct effect on the infrastructure; b) allow population to redistribute in response to increasing extreme events that will increase under climate impacts; and c) project new distributions of electricity demand in the mid-21^st century.

The research was structured in three parts. The first …

Projections Of Future Us Design Wind Speeds Due To Climate Change For Estimating Hurricane Losses, Fangqian Liu

All Dissertations

Hurricane is among the most dangerous and costliest natural hazards that affect the coastal environment of the United States (U.S.) every year. Hurricane activities have been observed to change in many aspects since the last century including the changes in both intensity and annual storm frequency. The extent to which aspect of climate change contributes to the variation in hurricane activities from long-term historical statistics is still not clearly understood at this point. This study examines the impacts of two climate change effects (change in annual storm frequency and sea surface temperature) on future U.S. design wind speeds for the …

Impacts Of Climate Changes On The Spatiotemporal Distribution Of Precipitation In The Western United States, Peng Jiang

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Precipitation in the Intermountain West is characterized by its great variability in both spatial and temporal distributions. Moreover, the spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation is changing due to the climate changes. In this dissertation, three studies are conducted to investigate the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation, the performance of current climate models on this variability, the influence of large-scale ocean oscillations on heavy precipitation, and the impact of human induced global warming on storm properties.

The first study is to examine the performance of current climate models on the simulation of the multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station …

A Study Of The Economical Feasibility Of Installing Heating, Ventilation, And Air-Conditioning Condensate Recovery System, Rafid M. Kully

Theses

The objective of this study is to establish a guide line or an analytical frame work to predetermine the economic benefits associated with the installation of Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) condensate recovery systems to capture the air-handler’s condensate water and use it as makeup water for the cooling tower. Some factors should be considered such as; the location, building operation, amount of outside air required, type of energy recovery system, and indoor conditions setup. Experimental data was used from Emory University in Georgia, where a condensate recovery system was installed and the condensate water from four air-handler units at …