Engineering Commons^™

An Investigation In Construction Cost Estimation Using A Monte Carlo Simulation, Jeffrey D. Buchholtz

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force estimates military construction (MILCON) costs early in a project’s development as a part of the funding approval process. However, many of the initial cost estimates deviate significantly more than expected from the actual project costs, hindering funding allocation efforts. There is a need for improved estimation techniques. This research examines a cost estimation model for the initial programming stages of a project when only general scope information is available.

This study develops a Monte Carlo simulation based on historical construction cost data to predict project costs base on facility type. For a given facility type, the research …