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Calibrating Expert Assessments Of Advanced Aerospace Technology Adoption Impact, Bruce A. Conway

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development of expert judgment calibration methodology as part of elicitation of the expert judgments to assist in the task of quantifying parameter uncertainty for proposed new aerospace vehicles. From previous work, it has been shown that experts in the field of aerospace systems design and development can provide valuable input into the sizing and conceptual design of future space launch vehicles employing advanced technology. In particular (and of specific interest in this case), assessment of operations and support cost implications of adopting proposed new technology is frequently asked of the experts. Often the input consisting of …