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A Synthesized Methodology For Eliciting Expert Judgment For Addressing Uncertainty In Decision Analysis, Richard W. Monroe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation describes the development, refinement, and demonstration of an expert judgment elicitation methodology. The methodology has been developed by synthesizing the literature across several social science and scientific fields. The foremost consideration in the methodology development has been to incorporate elements that are based on reasonable expectations for the human capabilities of the user, the expert in this case.

Many methodologies exist for eliciting assessments for uncertain events. These are frequently elicited in probability form. This methodology differs by incorporating a qualitative element as a beginning step for the elicitation process. The qualitative assessment is a more reasonable way …