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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer
Climate Change And The Delta, San Francisco Estuary And Watershed Science, Michael D. Dettinger, Jamie Anderson, Michael L. Anderson, Larry R. Brown, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes …
Bias Correction Can Modify Climate Model Simulated Precipitation Changes Without Adverse Effect On The Ensemble Mean, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce
Bias Correction Can Modify Climate Model Simulated Precipitation Changes Without Adverse Effect On The Ensemble Mean, Edwin P. Maurer, David W. Pierce
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When applied to remove climate model biases in precipitation, quantile mapping can in some settings modify the simulated difference in mean precipitation between two eras. This has important implications when the precipitation is used to drive an impacts model that is sensitive to changes in precipitation. The tendency of quantile mapping to alter model-predicted changes is demonstrated using synthetic precipitation distributions and elucidated with a simple theoretical analysis, which shows that the alteration of model-predicted changes can be controlled by the ratio of model to observed variance. To further evaluate the effects of quantile mapping in a more realistic setting, …
Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow And Subbasin- Scale Hydrology In The Upper Colorado River Basin, Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewert
Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow And Subbasin- Scale Hydrology In The Upper Colorado River Basin, Darren L. Ficklin, Edwin P. Maurer, Iris T. Stewert
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6uC for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM …
The Key Role Of Heavy Precipitation Events In Climate Model Disagreements Of Future Annual Precipitation Changes In California, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
The Key Role Of Heavy Precipitation Events In Climate Model Disagreements Of Future Annual Precipitation Changes In California, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Tapash Das, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate model simulations disagree on whether future precipitation will increase or decrease over California, which has impeded efforts to anticipate and adapt to human-induced climate change. This disagreement is explored in terms of daily precipitation frequency and intensity. It is found that divergent model projections of changes in the incidence of rare heavy (>60 mm day−1) daily precipitation events explain much of the model disagreement on annual time scales, yet represent only 0.3% of precipitating days and 9% of annual precipitation volume. Of the 25 downscaled model projections examined here, 21 agree that precipitation frequency will decrease by the …
Tools For Assessing Climate Impacts On Fish And Wildlife, Chad B. Wilsey, Joshua J. Lawler, Edwin P. Maurer, Donald Mckenzie, Patricia A. Townsend, Richard Gwozdz, James A. Freund, Keala Hagmann, Karen M. Hutten
Tools For Assessing Climate Impacts On Fish And Wildlife, Chad B. Wilsey, Joshua J. Lawler, Edwin P. Maurer, Donald Mckenzie, Patricia A. Townsend, Richard Gwozdz, James A. Freund, Keala Hagmann, Karen M. Hutten
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we provide a broad overview of the types of models available for forecasting the effects of climate change on key processes that affect fish and wildlife habitat (hydrology, fire, and vegetation), as well as on individual species distributions and populations. We present a framework for how …
Probabilistic Estimates Of Future Changes In California Temperature And Precipitation Usingstatistical And Dynamical Downscaling, David W. Pierce, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Probabilistic Estimates Of Future Changes In California Temperature And Precipitation Usingstatistical And Dynamical Downscaling, David W. Pierce, Tapash Das, Daniel R. Cayan, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Yan Bao, M. Kanamitsu, Kei Yoshimura, Mark A. Snyder, Lisa C. Sloan, Guido Franco, Mary Tyree
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar …
Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar
Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diuWhen applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique …
The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan
The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrologic model over California. The historic record was divided into an “observed” period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a “projected” period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a biascorrection/ spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method …
Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This paper examines potential regional-scale impacts of climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on the hydrologic system, soil and groundwater salinity with associated crop yield reductions. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which were downscaled to the 1,400 km2 study area. We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant uncertainty in projected precipitation creates …
Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, Evan H. Girvetz, Chris Zganjar, George T. Raber, Edwin P. Maurer, Peter Kareiva, Joshua J. Lawler
Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, Evan H. Girvetz, Chris Zganjar, George T. Raber, Edwin P. Maurer, Peter Kareiva, Joshua J. Lawler
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Background: Although the message of ‘‘global climate change’’ is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: …
Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change In The Western Hemisphere, Joshua J. Lawler, Sarah L. Shafer, Denis White, Peter Kareiva, Edwin P. Maurer, Andrew R. Blaustein, Patrick J. Bartlein
Projected Climate-Induced Faunal Change In The Western Hemisphere, Joshua J. Lawler, Sarah L. Shafer, Denis White, Peter Kareiva, Edwin P. Maurer, Andrew R. Blaustein, Patrick J. Bartlein
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we …
Climate Model Based Consensus On The Hydrologic Impacts Of Climate Change To The Rio Lempa Basin Of Central America, Edwin P. Maurer
Climate Model Based Consensus On The Hydrologic Impacts Of Climate Change To The Rio Lempa Basin Of Central America, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was appliedTemperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface …
Impact Of Climate Change On Irrigation Water Availability, Crop Water Requirements And Soil Salinity In The Sjv, Ca, Jan Hopmans, Edwin P. Maurer
Impact Of Climate Change On Irrigation Water Availability, Crop Water Requirements And Soil Salinity In The Sjv, Ca, Jan Hopmans, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
We examine potential regional-scale impacts of global climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on cropping patterns, groundwater pumping, groundwater levels, soil salinity, and crop yields. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which are downscaled here to the scale of the study area (~30 km across). We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering output from two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. …
Utility Of Daily Vs. Monthly Large-Scale Climate Data: An Intercomparison Of Two Statistical Downscaling Methods, Edwin P. Maurer, Hugo G. Hidalgo
Utility Of Daily Vs. Monthly Large-Scale Climate Data: An Intercomparison Of Two Statistical Downscaling Methods, Edwin P. Maurer, Hugo G. Hidalgo
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Downscaling of climate model data is essential to local and regional impact analysis. We compare two methods of statistical downscaling to produce continuous, gridded time series of precipitation and surface air temperature at a 1/8-degree (approximately 140 km2 per grid cell) resolution over the western U.S. We use NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1950–1999 as a surrogate General Circulation Model (GCM). The two methods included are constructed analogues (CA) and a bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD), both of which have been shown to be skillful in different settings, and BCSD has been used extensively in hydrologic impact analysis. Both methods …
Fine-Resolution Climate Projections Enhance Regional Climate Change Impact Studies, Edwin P. Maurer, Levi Brekke, Tom Pruitt, Philip P. Duffy
Fine-Resolution Climate Projections Enhance Regional Climate Change Impact Studies, Edwin P. Maurer, Levi Brekke, Tom Pruitt, Philip P. Duffy
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
A new data set enhances the abilities of researchers and decision-makers to assess possible future climates, explore societal impacts, and approach policy responses from a risk-based perspective. The data set, which consists of a library of 112 fine-resolution climate projections, based on 16 climate models and three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, is now publicly available. Monthly climate projections from 1950 to 2099 were downscaled to a spatial resolution of 1/8° (about 140 square kilometers per grid cell) covering the conterminous United States and portions of Canada and Mexico.
Climate Scenarios For California, Edwin P. Maurer, Michael Dettinger, Daniel Cayan, Mary Tyree, Katherine Hayhoe, Celine Bonfils, Philip B. Duffy, Benjamin Santer
Climate Scenarios For California, Edwin P. Maurer, Michael Dettinger, Daniel Cayan, Mary Tyree, Katherine Hayhoe, Celine Bonfils, Philip B. Duffy, Benjamin Santer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) …
Emissions Pathways, Climate Change, And Impacts On California, Katherine Hayhoe, Daniel Cayan, Christopher B. Field, Peter C. Frumhoff, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Susanne C. Moser, Stephen H. Schneider, Kimberly Nicholas Cahill, Elsa E. Cleland, Larry Dale, Ray Drapek, R. Hanemann, Laurence S. Kalkstein, James Lenihan, Claire K. Lunch, Ronald P. Nielson, Scott C. Sheridan, Julia H. Verville
Emissions Pathways, Climate Change, And Impacts On California, Katherine Hayhoe, Daniel Cayan, Christopher B. Field, Peter C. Frumhoff, Edwin P. Maurer, Norman L. Miller, Susanne C. Moser, Stephen H. Schneider, Kimberly Nicholas Cahill, Elsa E. Cleland, Larry Dale, Ray Drapek, R. Hanemann, Laurence S. Kalkstein, James Lenihan, Claire K. Lunch, Ronald P. Nielson, Scott C. Sheridan, Julia H. Verville
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with …
Detection Of Intensification Of The Global Water Cycle: The Potential Role Of Friend, Alan D. Zeigler, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, Bart Nijssen, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Detection Of Intensification Of The Global Water Cycle: The Potential Role Of Friend, Alan D. Zeigler, Justin Sheffield, Eric F. Wood, Bart Nijssen, Edwin P. Maurer, Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Diagnostic studies of 14-year, 2 — 2°, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model off-line simulations of the global terrestrial water budget suggest that, given the annual variability in the major components of continental hydrological cycles (precipitation, evaporation, and runoff), several decades to perhaps centuries of measurements may be needed to detect with high confidence the intensification predicted by recent global climate model (GCM) studies simulating plausible global warming scenarios. Furthermore, these measurements may need to originate from a wider geographic expanse than is currently investigated within large-scale hydrological assessment programmes, such as the Global Energy and Water Experiment (GEWEX). Smaller, geographically …
Assessing The Costs Of Adapting To Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study Of San Francisco Bay, Peter H. Gleick, Edwin P. Maurer
Assessing The Costs Of Adapting To Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study Of San Francisco Bay, Peter H. Gleick, Edwin P. Maurer
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), tropospheric ozone (O3), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and other trace gases are growing due to human activities. These trace gases are transparent to incoming solar radiation and trap outgoing infrared (heat) radiation, acting like a blanket to warm the Earth. Without any of these gases in the atmosphere, the surface of the Earth would be about 35 C (70 F) colder than at present, and life, if any could exist, would be quite different. This natural greenhouse effect is being intensified by human activities that accelerate the emission of these trace …