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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Prediction -- The Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Prediction -- The Quintessential Policy Model Validation Test, Wayne Wakeland
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
It is essential to objectively test how well policy models predict real world behavior. The method used to support this assertion involves the review of three SD policy models emphasizing the degree to which the model was able to fit the historical outcome data and how well model-predicted outcomes matched real world outcomes as they unfolded. Findings indicate that while historical model agreement is a favorable indication of model validity, the act of making predictions without knowing the actual data, and comparing these predictions to actual data, can reveal model weaknesses that might be overlooked when all of the available …
The Mechanisms Of Information Integration In Experimental Prediction Markets, Richard Jolly, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland, James Woods, Barry Anderson
The Mechanisms Of Information Integration In Experimental Prediction Markets, Richard Jolly, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland, James Woods, Barry Anderson
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
The desire to understand the mechanisms of market information integration motivates this study. Experimental prediction markets are used in a large sample study and the results from the markets as well as individuals' actions are analyzed. By varying the presence and type of feedback the mechanisms of information collection and information aggregation were studied. Markets without feedback demonstrated information collection by outperforming the average of their participants. When feedback was introduced the inductive process of information aggregation was observed. This process was seen to simultaneously increase the amount of information assimilated, but also introduce information mirages which tend to decrease …