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Using Evolutionary Programming To Increase The Accuracy Of An Ensemble Model For Energy Forecasting, James Gramz
Using Evolutionary Programming To Increase The Accuracy Of An Ensemble Model For Energy Forecasting, James Gramz
Master's Theses (2009 -)
Natural gas companies are always trying to increase the accuracy of their forecasts. We introduce evolutionary programming as an approach to forecast natural gas demand more accurately. The created Evolutionary Programming Engine and Evolutionary Programming Ensemble Model use the current GasDay models, along with weather and historical ow to create an overall forecast for the amount of natural gas a company will need to supply to their customers on a given day. The existing ensemble model uses the GasDay component models and then tunes their individual forecasts and combines them to create an overall forecast. The inputs into the Evolutionary …