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Design Day Analysis - Forecasting Extreme Daily Natural Gas Demand, David Joseph Kaftan
Design Day Analysis - Forecasting Extreme Daily Natural Gas Demand, David Joseph Kaftan
Master's Theses (2009 -)
This work provides a framework for Design Day analysis. First, we estimate the temperature conditions which are expected to be colder than all but one day in N years. This temperature is known as the Design Day condition. Then, we forecast an upper bound on natural gas demand when temperature is at the Design Day condition. Natural gas distribution companies (LDCs) need to meet demand during extreme cold days. Just as bridge builders design for a nominal load, natural gas distribution companies need to design for a nominal temperature. This nominal temperature is the Design Day condition. The Design Day …
Blending As A Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting Tool, Tian Gao
Blending As A Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecasting Tool, Tian Gao
Master's Theses (2009 -)
Every day, millions of cubic feet of natural gas is transported through interstate pipelines and consumed by customers all over the United States of America. Gas distributors, responsible for sending natural gas to individual customers, are eager for an estimate of how much natural gas will be used in the near future. GasHour software, a reliable forecasting tool from the Marquette University GasDay lab, has been providing highly accurate hourly forecasts over the past few years. Our goal is to improve current GasHour forecasts, and my thesis presents an approach to achieve that using a blending technique. This thesis includes …