Engineering Commons^™

Peak Grain Forecasts For The Us High Plains Amid Withering Waters, Assaad Mrad, Gabriel G. Katul, Delphis F. Levia, Andrew J. Guswa, Elizabeth W. Boyer, Michael Bruen, Darryl E. Carlyle-Moses, Rachel Coyte, Irena F. Creed, Nick Van De Giesen, Domenico Grasso, David M. Hannah, Janice E. Hudson, Vincent Humphrey, Shin'ichi Iida, Robert B. Jackson, Tomo'omi Kumagai, Pilar Llorens, Beate Michalzik, Kazuki Nanko, Catherine A. Peters, John S. Selker, Doerthe Tetzlaff, Maciej Zalewski, Bridget R. Scanlon

Engineering: Faculty Publications

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, …