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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
A Multivariate Modeling Approach For Generating Ensemble Climatology Forcing For Hydrologic Applications, Sepideh Khajehei
A Multivariate Modeling Approach For Generating Ensemble Climatology Forcing For Hydrologic Applications, Sepideh Khajehei
Dissertations and Theses
Reliability and accuracy of the forcing data plays a vital role in the Hydrological Streamflow Prediction. Reliability of the forcing data leads to accurate predictions and ultimately reduction of uncertainty. Currently, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal and spatial scales. However, it is proven that the raw products of the NWP models may be biased at the basin scale; unlike model grid scale, depending on the size of the catchment. Due to the large space-time variability of precipitation, bias-correcting the ensemble forecasts has proven to be a challenging task. In recent years, Ensemble Pre-Processing …
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Probabilistic forecasts are commonly used to communicate uncertainty in the occurrence of hydrometeorological events. Although probabilistic forecasting is common, conventional methods for assessing the reliability of these forecasts are approximate. Among the most common methods for assessing reliability, the decomposed Brier Score and Reliability Diagram treat an observed string of events as samples from multiple Binomial distributions, but this is an approximation of the forecast reliability, leading to unnecessary loss of information. This article suggests testing the hypothesis of reliability via the Poisson-Binomial distribution, which is a generalized solution to the Binomial distribution, providing a more accurate model of the …