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Daily Forecasts Of Columbia River Plume Circulation: A Tale Of Spring/Summer Cruises, Yinglong J. Zhang, Antonio M. Baptista, Barbara M. Hickey, Byron C. Crump, David A. Jay, Michael Wilkin, Charles Seaton

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Semi-operational daily forecasts of circulation from an observatory for the Columbia River estuary-plume-shelf system routinely support oceanographic cruises, by providing 24h-ahead estimates of plume location and structure for planning purposes and for near real-time interpretation of observations. This paper analyzes forecast skill during spring/summer cruises in 2004-2007. Assessment addresses both qualitative descriptions of major plume trends and features and quantitative representation of data from (primarily) vessel-based flow-through, cast and towed systems. Forecasts emerge as robust predictors of plume location and variability, with skill that has grown over time, at least in part due to improvements in model algorithms. When the …