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Louisiana State University

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Uncertainty

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Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Groundwater Management Optimization And Saltwater Intrusion Mitigation Under Uncertainty, Jina Yin Sep 2019

Groundwater Management Optimization And Saltwater Intrusion Mitigation Under Uncertainty, Jina Yin

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Groundwater is valuable to supply fresh water to the public, industries, agriculture, etc. However, excessive pumping has caused groundwater storage degradation, water quality deterioration and saltwater intrusion problems. Reliable groundwater flow and solute transport modeling is needed for sustainable groundwater management and aquifer remediation design. However, challenges exist because of highly complex subsurface environments, computationally intensive groundwater models as well as inevitable uncertainties. The first research goal is to explore conjunctive use of feasible hydraulic control approaches for groundwater management and aquifer remediation. Water budget analysis is conducted to understand how groundwater withdrawals affect water levels. A mixed integer multi-objective …


Identification And Reduction Of Uncertainties In Watershed-Scale Flow And Water Quality Modeling, Maryam Roostaee Apr 2019

Identification And Reduction Of Uncertainties In Watershed-Scale Flow And Water Quality Modeling, Maryam Roostaee

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This study identified important uncertainties affecting watershed-scale flow and water quality simulations and recommended modeling options for reducing the uncertainties by means of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Specifically, parameter-induced uncertainties in HSPF model were estimated along with uncertainties associated with DEM resolutions and sources. National Elevation Dataset (NED) DEMs with original and resampled resolutions of 3.5, 10, 30 and 100m were utilized for manual and automatic delineation of three watersheds with different gradients in HSPF model to identify the effects of DEM resolution, DEM resampling, delineation method and watershed gradient on the simulation of streamflow, nitrate (NO3 …


Conjunctive Management Of Water Resources Under Climate Change Projection Uncertainty, Amir Mani Jan 2016

Conjunctive Management Of Water Resources Under Climate Change Projection Uncertainty, Amir Mani

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Goal of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change projection uncertainty on conjunctive use of water resources. To pursue this goal first, a conjunctive-use model is developed for management of groundwater and surface water resources via mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP). The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. A conditional head constraint is imposed to maintain groundwater sustainability. A transformation approach is introduced to transform the conditional head constraint into a set of mixed integer linear constraints in terms of groundwater head. A supply network is proposed to apply …


Experimental Designs For Model Discrimination And Uncertainty Reduction In Groundwater Modeling, Hai Van Pham Jan 2015

Experimental Designs For Model Discrimination And Uncertainty Reduction In Groundwater Modeling, Hai Van Pham

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Groundwater systems are complex and subject to multiple interpretations due to a lack of sufficient information. Different propositions (or alternatives) are often proposed to represent uncertain model components resulted in many conceptual models using the same data. Yet considering too many models may lead to high prediction uncertainty and may lose the purpose of model development. To decrease the prediction uncertainty due to conceptual model uncertainty, two experimental designs are proposed. The first experimental design intends to identify model propositions in each uncertain model component. A discrimination criterion is developed based on posterior model probability. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is …


Bayesian Saltwater Intrusion Prediction And Remediation Design Under Uncertainty, Nima Chitsazan Jan 2014

Bayesian Saltwater Intrusion Prediction And Remediation Design Under Uncertainty, Nima Chitsazan

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Groundwater resources are vital for sustainable economic and demographic developments. Reliable prediction of groundwater head and contaminant transport is necessary for sustainable management of the groundwater resources. However, the groundwater simulation models are subjected to uncertainty in their predictions. The goals of this research are to: (1) quantify the uncertainty in the groundwater model predictions and (2) investigate the impact of the quantified uncertainty on the aquifer remediation designs. To pursue the first goal, this study generalizes the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method and introduces the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method that segregates and prioritizes sources of uncertainty in …


Characterization And Uncertainty Analysis Of Siliciclastic Aquifer-Fault System, Ahmed Saad Elshall Jan 2013

Characterization And Uncertainty Analysis Of Siliciclastic Aquifer-Fault System, Ahmed Saad Elshall

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

The complex siliciclastic aquifer system underneath the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana, USA, is fluvial in origin. The east-west trending Baton Rouge fault and Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault cut across East Baton Rouge Parish and play an important role in groundwater flow and aquifer salinization. To better understand the salinization underneath Baton Rouge, it is imperative to study the hydrofacies architecture and the groundwater flow field of the Baton Rogue aquifer-fault system. This is done through developing multiple detailed hydrofacies architecture models and multiple groundwater flow models of the aquifer-fault system, representing various uncertain model propositions. The hydrofacies architecture models focus on …


Modeling Temporal And Spatial Variations In Dissolved Oxygen In Amite River, Vahid Zahraeifard Jan 2013

Modeling Temporal And Spatial Variations In Dissolved Oxygen In Amite River, Vahid Zahraeifard

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

A watershed-based modeling framework is developed in this dissertation for simulating temporal and spatial variations in DO in lowland rivers with organic-rich fine-grained sediment. The modeling framework is based on three major contributions/new models, including (1)VART-DO model for improved estimation of reaeration coefficient (K2) in natural streams, (2)VART-DOS model for simulation of temporal variations in DO in response to sediment resuspension, and (3)VART DO-3L model for simulation of spatial variations in DO. A major advantage of VART-DO model is the capability of simulating DO exchange across the water-sediment interface through the hyporheic exchange mechanism in addition to the air-water exchange. …