Engineering Commons^™

Operational Planning Of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand, Taylor J. Leonard

Theses and Dissertations

Past research proposed that it is possible to forecast cargo demand using time series models and that there exists potential cost savings in the way that Civilian Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) is used for cargo airlift. United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) performs annual fixed-buys of CRAF to support airlift needs. Forecasted cargo demand would allow for reasonably accurate cargo projections vs. the current expected value estimation. Accurate forecasting allows for greater fixed-buys, further incentivizing CRAF airlines as well as reducing the number of additional aircraft purchases during the quarterly and monthly buys. Multiple forecasting models are constructed and the results …