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Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnosis: An Electrical Power System Case Study, Ole J. Mengshoel, Mark Chavira, Keith Cascio, Adnan Darwiche, Scott Poll, Serdar Uckun

Ole J Mengshoel

We present in this paper a case study of the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis. Here, the diagnosed system is a real-world electrical power system (EPS), i.e., the Advanced Diagnstic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. Our probabilistic approach is formally well founded and based on Bayesian networks (BNs) and arithmetic circuits (ACs). We pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies: model development and real-time reasoning. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing EPSs as BNs, …