Engineering Commons^™

Benchmarking And Evaluating The Efficiency Of Mass Transit Systems Based On Best Practice Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Jacqueline Nayame, Maoloud Dabab, Timothy Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Public transit systems in the USA have been faced with mounting pressure to decrease their operating costs while at the same time expected to increase ridership and meeting multiple societal needs. The primary objective of this study is to measure the efficiencies of mass transit agencies based on best practice in the US, identify the influencing factors leading to their efficiencies, and how these strategies and policies can be used improve inefficiency in transit agencies. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method, the study analyzed the mass performance of 334 transit agencies across the US using data from the national transit …

Technology Trajectory Mapping Using Data Envelopment Analysis: The Ex-Ante Use Of Disruptive Innovation Theory On Flat Panel Technologies, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper, we propose a technology trajectory mapping approach using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) that scrutinizes technology progress patterns from multidimensional perspectives. Literature reviews on technology trajectory mappings have revealed that it is imperative to identify key performance measures that can represent different value propositions and then apply them to the investigation of technology systems in order to capture indications of the future disruption. The proposed approach provides a flexibility not only to take multiple characteristics of technology systems into account but also to deal with various tradeoffs among technology attributes by imposing weight restrictions in the DEA model. …

Financial Analysis And Comparison Of Compact Electric And Gasoline Cars, Jing Jiang, Alexander Blank, Felix Maier, Anjan Bharthepudi

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the paper, a PESTLE (political, economic, social, technical, legal, and environmental) analysis is used to conduct an initial evaluation for electric vehicles (EV) and gasoline cars. Furthermore, two cash flow models are created to describe the scenarios of both gasoline and electric car respectively. Based upon the proposed models, the equivalent uniform annual cost (EUAC) methodology is used to calculate the cost during the period of car ownership. Four compact EVs and five compact gasoline cars are selected in the analysis. The results expose that the actual return of federal tax credit impacts the EUAC value. The 50% return …

Multiple Objective Evolution Strategies Using Data Envelopment Analysis, James V. Lill, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Often in science and engineering we are faced with complicated nonlinear problems in optimization that involve simultaneously minimizing or maximizing various non-commensurate quantities. For example, a basic task in design engineering or technology management is to balance suitable measures of performance against the cost. We present a simplified approach for performing multiple objective optimization by combining standard single objective Evolution Strategies with Data Envelopment Analysis. This latter method employs linear programming to compute an L1 distance of a given solution from the Pareto frontier defined by the evolving population of solutions, or from a related frontier defined by DEA. This …

Improving Library Efficiency To Meet Patron's Needs: A Data Envelopment Analysis Benchmarking Model, Michael Clark

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technological innovation and the information age have increased patrons’ expectations of the services and resources that academic libraries provide. Libraries are responding to patrons’ needs by providing digital resources and services, and collaborative spaces that invite communication and knowledge sharing. In order to effectively meet patrons’ needs, libraries are striving to efficiently manage their human, materials, and fiscal resources. Libraries have traditionally measured efficiency by developing single factor productivity indexes. However, these qualitative methods do not adequately address the efficiency aspect which measures the transformation of resources (inputs) into services (outputs). Data envelopment analysis (DEA) measures the relative efficiencies of …

Technological Forecasting Based On Segmented Rate Of Change, Dong-Joon Lim

Dissertations and Theses

Consider the following questions in the early stage of new product development. What should be the target market for proposed design concepts? Who will be the competitors and how fast are they moving forward in terms of performance improvements? Ultimately, is the current design concept and targeted launch date feasible and competitive?

To answer these questions, there is a need to integrate the product benchmarking with the assessment of performance improvement so that analysts can have a risk measure for their R&D target setting practices. Consequently, this study presents how time series benchmarking analysis can be used to assist scheduling …

Comparing Technological Advancement Of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (Hev) In Different Market Segments, Dong-Joon Lim, Shabnam Razeghian Jahromi, Timothy R. Anderson, Anca-Alexandra Tudori

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Toyota Prius was first introduced in 1997 and since then over 150 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been brought to the automobile market around the world. This was spurred by a major interest in the future of vehicles using ‘alternative fuel’ for addressing environmental and fuel dependency concerns. Based upon previous work1, which identified an input-output model that could successfully explain the progress of HEV technologies, this study evaluates and compares the technological advancement observed in different HEV market segments over the past 15 years. The results indicate that the introduction of a wide range of midsize HEVs is …

Technological Forecasting Of Supercomputer Development: The March To Exascale Computing, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Tom Shott

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve …

Choosing Effective Dates From Multiple Optima In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Oliver Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) provides an effective means to forecast technological capability over time without the burden of fixed a priori weighting schemes. However, there are situations where result reproduction can be a challenge as first pointed out in a previous Technological Forecasting and Social Change article. When using a commonly used extension of TFDEA, there are circumstances where multiple optimal solutions can complicate analysis. This paper addresses this issue through extending the TFDEA model in a manner consistent with common Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. The extension is then demonstrated using datasets from previous publications on …

Improving Forecast Accuracy By A Segmented Rate Of Change In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) captures technological advancement from the evolution of the state-of-the-art (SOA) frontier. Within this process, TFDEA combines rates of changes (RoC) from past technologies that have been superseded by superior technologies. However, it was occasionally observed in previous applications that forecasting based on a single aggregated RoC did not consider the unique growth patterns of each technology segment, which resulted in a conservative or aggressive forecasting. This study proposes a procedure to improve the forecasting accuracy by identifying local rates of change for each frontier segment that may represent different product families. This approach …

Applying Technology Forecasting To New Product Development Target Setting Of Lcd Panels, Dong-Joon Lim, Neil Runde, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This chapter illustrates the Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) process on Liquid Crystal Display (LCD) performance characteristics from 1997 to 2012. The objective of this study is to forecast future state-of-the-arts (SOAs) specifications as well as to diagnose past technological advancement of the LCD industry. Appropriate characteristics were determined from a group of LCD technologists. Data was gathered from public databases and outlying data points were cross-referenced as a validity check. The TFDEA process is defined and its application to the dataset is described in detail. The results not only provide information on how LCD industry has evolved …

Incorporating Value Judgment In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) has been employed to a wide range of applications because of its ability to model complex tradeoffs. The very name indicates that it is based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) which has strength that it doesn?t require fixed a priori weighting scheme. Instead, it adopts dynamic weighting scheme that each data point can choose their best possible weights. However, it is well known that this flexibility may result in extreme weights that may be considered unrealistic in certain applications and has been one subject of DEA researches. This paper extends the standard TFDEA …

Forecasting Microprocessor Technology In The Multicore Era Using Tfdea, Saranya Durairajan, Maria Ibarra Prado, Noshad Rahimi, Shabnam Razeghian Jahromi

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technological advancements in the microprocessor industry are benchmarked and gauged against a set of diverse criteria, specific to the fabrication process, usage as well as achieved performance. Changing trends in the appeal factor as well as wide variety of growing application of microprocessors in different industries also have a defining impact in the advancement of the technological features in future. This study improves the previous investigation in forecasting microprocessors? technology and uses Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) methodology for an enhanced model. The study takes advantage of the recent microprocessor dataset including multi core processors, from a variety …

R&D Target-Setting Difficulties Addressed Through Emergent Method: Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Ann-Marie Lamb, Timothy R. Anderson, Tugrul Unsal Daim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The aim of this study is to provide a foundation for researchers and managers to further discuss and resolve difficulties associated with R&D target-setting. While multiple studies mention the difficulty of R&D target-setting, few studies exist which compile reasons for these difficulties; nor do they address this issue in any detail. This paper provides what appears to be one of the first studies outlining reasons for R&D target-setting difficulties through a literature review; then also provides an initial set of analyses and results after applying an emerging quantitative method, Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) addressing these difficulties, step-by-step …

Predicting U.S. Jet Fighter Aircraft Introductions From 1944 To 1982: A Dogfight Between Regression And Tfdea, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert R. Harmon

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA to a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and Martino’s multiple regression model, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using the first flights of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using …

Improving Time To Market Forecasts: A Comparison Of Two Technology Forecasting Techniques For Predicting U.S. Fighter Jet Introductions From 1944 To 1982, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert R. Harmon

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since its origin in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been tested with a number of applications. This paper uses a previously published technology forecast comparison of U.S. fighter jets between the years 1944 and 1982 to compare TFDEA to basic regression. Both techniques use aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960 to predict the first flights of those fighters introduced between 1960 and 1982. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using regression. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time …

Measuring The Changing Capabilities Of Computer Display Projectors Using Tfdea, Supachart Iamratanakul, Timothy R. Anderson, Lane Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper applies technological forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to computer display projector (CDP) technology. The objective is to analyze the technological change CDP products. The results indicate that the rate of technological change for CDP technology is accelerating, which is consistent with an understanding of the industry. A methodological issue of infeasibility is described and methods for dealing with it are presented. Future work may extend to examine over additional years and product releases.

Tfdea: A New Approach For Technology Forecasting Of New Product Development Targets, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Presentation delivered at the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET ?04), focusing on use of data envelopment analysis for technology forecasting.

Use Of Dea To Evaluate Non-Linear And Imprecise Information In Construction Contractor Performance, Gerald H. Williams, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper explores the use of Data Envelopment Analysis as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of building construction projects in Oregon where the inputs, including, "reported information" available prior to pricing and contractor selection is imprecise or at least, cannot be entirely or accurately captured by exogenous measures. This work builds on prior work in the field that evaluated missing, imprecise or non-existent information in DEA models and has broad application to the service sector of the economy where information is the prime input in the system.

Further Examination Of Moore's Law With Data Envelopment Analysis, Timothy R. Anderson, Rolf Färe, Shawna Grosskopf, Lane Inman, Xiaoyu Song

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Although it has stood the test of time for over 30 years, Moore's Law addresses but a single aspect of microprocessor design. As a proxy for technology, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit represents a limited perspective on the technology as a whole. Anderson et al. proposed a set of metrics by which to measure a technology, and a means to measure its progress over time utilizing data envelopment analysis. In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed …

The Fixed Weighting Nature Of A Cross-Evaluation Model, Timothy R. Anderson, Keith Hollingsworth, Lane Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Cross-evaluation has been touted as a powerful extension of Data Envelopment Analysis that provides, not only a unique ordering among the Decision Making Units (DMUs), but also eliminates unrealistic weighting schemes without requiring the elicitation of weight restrictions from application area experts. The goal of this paper is to prove, in the single-input, multiple-output case, cross-evaluation implicitly uses a single fixed set of weights. We demonstrate how this unseen fixed set of weights may still be unrealistic.

Assessing The Rate Of Change In The Enterprise Database System Market Over Time Using Dea, Timothy R. Anderson, Keith Hollingsworth, Lane Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper builds upon previous work of using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure incremental innovation in technology by applying it to the Online Transaction Processing Market. A variable returns to scale DEA model is utilized to determine an annual rate of change in benchmarks based on data provided by the Transaction Processing Performance Council. This rate of change may then be used to forecast possible future performance trendsetters of the TPC.

A New Technique For Estimating Confidence Intervals On Dea Efficiency Estimates, Janice Forrester, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

A new approach to chance constrained DEA is described and experimental results are given for calculating a confidence band for the estimated production function. This allows an interval containing the most likely production function, to be specified with a predetermined level of confidence.

Using Data Envelopment Analysis For Evaluating Alternative Software Development Process Configurations, Timothy R. Anderson, Peter K. Ghavami

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Summary form only given as follows. The goal of achieving better software depends on improvements in software development processes. This paper provides a nonparametric, quantitative methodology for evaluating alternative software development process configurations as a tool for process improvement. The methodology uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) for comparing the impact of varying degrees of software inspection on project schedule, cost and quality. Since every phase of the development process can be inspected at varying levels, a large number of process combinations become possible. Thus a manager's job to compare and select an efficient process configuration can become tedious. This is …

Data Envelopment Analysis With Integral Targets, Gunter P. Sharp, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) inherently assumes that the feasible targets for inputs and outputs are continuous. This paper develops and illustrates extensions to DEA that allow for integer valued inputs and outputs. It is found that DEA?s implicit assumption of continuous targets can be significant in certain applications.

An Introduction To Data Envelopment Analysis In Technology Management, Keith Hollingsworth, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Productivity is a major source of competitive advantage but improving productivity requires analysis and productivity is getting more difficult to measure as economies become more knowledge, service, and innovation intensive. In this paper, we will provide an introduction to a powerful productivity analysis tool, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA is a flexible tool originally created in the 1970s for examining the relative efficiency of non-profit institutions. Researchers have found many more applications and created numerous extensions to DEA. This paper provides an introduction to DEA, a summary of some of the most important modeling variations, and examples of applications relevant …

A New Measure Of Baseball Batters Using Dea, Timothy R. Anderson, Gunter P. Sharp

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to create an alternative to traditional batting statistics called the Composite Batter Index (CBI). Advantages of CBI over traditional statistics include the fact that players are judged on the basis of what they accomplish relative to other players and that it automatically accounts for changing conditions of the game that raise or lower batting statistics. Historical results are examined to show how the industry of baseball batting has matured and potential uses of CBI are discussed. The application of baseball suggests that random variation may have an effect on CBI. We investigated this effect …

Selecting The "Best" Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Timothy R. Anderson, Akin Uslu

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

One of the most important strengths of Data Envelopment Analysis, (DEA), is that it allows almost complete freedom in the way that each decision making unit, (DMU), evaluates itself relative to its peers. This tends to result in many DMUs receiving a high efficiency score. Particularly when DEA is applied in a decision making context, it may be desirable to select a single option rather than determining the set of efficient alternatives in ranking efficient DMU or to Assist selecting a "best" DMU. Several extensions to DEA have been proposed and used. This paper examines, compares, and integrates a variety …