Engineering Commons^™

Performance-Based Risk Assessment For Large-Scale Transportation Networks, Anteneh Deriba, David Y. Yang

Student Research Symposium

Efficiently assessing the risk of asset failure due to deterioration or extreme events is crucial for transportation asset management. Traditional methods often lack effectiveness in directly evaluating system performance-based risks, facing challenges like the exponential increase in system states and the emergence of low-probability high-consequence events ("grey swan" events). To address these, this paper introduces a novel performance-based risk assessment approach for large-scale transportation networks, inspired by the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) method. This method transforms the risk assessment problem into a high-dimensional posterior distribution, with system risk acting as the normalization factor (evidence). It also provides risk-based …