Engineering Commons^™

Exploring Technology Forecasting And Its Implications For Strategic Technology Planning, Yonghee Cho

Dissertations and Theses

As the importance of R&D has been growing in economic growth, the accountability and effectiveness of R&D programs are highly emphasized. Especially, in times of economic downturn, the evaluation of performance in a firm is needed to justify R&D investment. In response, various attempts have been made to improve success rates of R&D projects, gain competitive advantage, and achieve a firm's growth in profitability. In particular, in industries where technological innovation is significant, strategic technology planning and R&D capabilities may be the lead ones in defining the dynamic capabilities of a firm. In addition, technology forecasting (TF) in technology planning …

Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Oliver Lane Inman

Dissertations and Theses

The ability to anticipate future capabilities of technology products has broad implications for organizations. Technological forecasting allows management to improve resource allocation, make better staffing decisions, and more confidently plan facilities and capital expenditures. Technology forecasting may also identify potential new markets and opportunities, such as finding ways to exploit current technology beyond its originally intended purposes.

Modern technology forecasters use an array of forecasting methods to predict the future performance of a technology, such as time-series analysis, regression, stochastic methods, and simulation. These quantitative methods rely on the assumption that past behavior will continue. Shortcomings include their lack of …