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Online Bus Speed Prediction With Spatiotemporal Interaction: A Laplace Approximation-Based Bayesian Approach, Haipeng Cui, Kun Xie, Bin Hu, Hangfei Lin

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

This study proposes a novel Bayesian hierarchical approach for online bus speed prediction by explicitly accounting for the spatiotemporal interaction (STI) of speed observations. The use of Laplace approximation can expedite the estimation of Bayesian models and enable the implementation of online prediction. Large numbers of trials are carried out to identify significant predictors and the optimal length of the look-back time window to achieve the highest prediction accuracy. The spatiotemporal interacting patterns are also explored, and results show that the Type IV model assuming the structured spatial effect interacts with the structured temporal effect can best accommodate the bus …