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Extreme Value

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A Review Of Probabilistic Methods Of Assessment Of Load Effects In Bridges, Eugene J. Obrien, F Schmidt, Donya Hajializadeh, X-Y Zhou, Bernard Enright, Colin C. Caprani, Simon Wilson, Emma Sheils Jan 2015

A Review Of Probabilistic Methods Of Assessment Of Load Effects In Bridges, Eugene J. Obrien, F Schmidt, Donya Hajializadeh, X-Y Zhou, Bernard Enright, Colin C. Caprani, Simon Wilson, Emma Sheils

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This paper reviews a range of statistical approaches to illustrate the influence of data quality and quantity on the probabilistic modelling of traffic load effects. It also aims to demonstrate the importance of long-run simulations in calculating characteristic traffic load effects. The popular methods of Peaks Over Threshold and Generalized Extreme Value are considered but also other methods including the Box-Cox approach, fitting to a Normal distribution and the Rice formula. For these five methods, curves are fitted to the tails of the daily maximum data. Bayesian Updating and Predictive Likelihood are also assessed, which require the entire data for …


Nonlinear Analysis Of Isotropic Slab Bridges Under Extreme Traffic Loading, Donya Hajializadeh, A. Salam Al-Sabah, Eugene J. Obrien, Debra F. Laefer, Bernard Enright Jan 2015

Nonlinear Analysis Of Isotropic Slab Bridges Under Extreme Traffic Loading, Donya Hajializadeh, A. Salam Al-Sabah, Eugene J. Obrien, Debra F. Laefer, Bernard Enright

Articles

Probabilistic analysis of traffic loading on a bridge traditionally involves an extrapolation from measured or simulated load effects to a characteristic maximum value. In recent years, Long Run Simulation, whereby thousands of years of traffic are simulated, has allowed researchers to gain new insights into the nature of the traffic scenarios that govern at the limit state. For example, mobile cranes and low-loaders, sometimes accompanied by a common articulated truck, have been shown to govern in most cases. In this paper, the extreme loading scenarios identified in the Long Run Simulation are applied to a non-linear, two-dimensional (2D) plate finite …