Engineering Commons^™

Combined Risk Based Inspection And Fault Tree Analysis For Repetitive 3-Phase Line Piping Leakage At West Java Offshore Topside Facility, Dona Yuliati, Akhmad Herman Yuwono, Datu Rizal Asral, Donanta Dhaneswara

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

Hydrocarbon releases might result in serious consequences in various aspects. In addition to the contribution to environmental pollution, repetitive leakages need high repair costs. This study aim is to minimize potential repetitive leakage for other typical 3-phase piping systems. We conducted the risk assessment by adopting Risk Based Inspection (RBI) API 581 to identify risk level, calculating piping lifetime, recommended inspection plan and mitigations. The most relevant root causes can be obtained through quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). Observation and investigation was taken from eight 3-phase piping systems that experienced repetitive leakages. It has been found that the risk level …

Risk Assessments And Modeling Of Driver By Using Risk Potential Theory, Riku Kikuta

Theses and Dissertations

Recently, various self-driving and driving assistance systems such as Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) have been developed with the intent to reduce the number of motor vehicle accidents. While self-driving systems have been proven to reduce traffic accidents, the systems sometimes make other drivers confused because of their mechanical behavior. To avoid confusion and possible error, it is necessary to construct self-driving systems that exhibit human-like behaviors. Risk Potential theory has been used to construct models that successfully represent driver behavior, especially expert behavior. This project uses Risk Potential theory to construct and evaluate a collision avoidance driver model which …

Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level.

Association Of X-Ray Absorptiometry Body Composition Measurements With Basic Anthropometrics And Mortality Hazard, Nir Y. Krakauer, Jesse C. Krakauer

Publications and Research

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is a non-invasive imaging modality that can estimate whole-body and regional composition in terms of fat, lean, and bone mass. We examined the ability of DEXA body composition measures (whole-body, trunk, and limb fat mass and fat-free mass) to predict mortality in conjunction with basic body measures (anthropometrics), expressed using body mass index (BMI) and a body shape index (ABSI). We used data from the 1999–2006 United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), with mortality follow-up to 2015. We found that all DEXA-measured masses were highly correlated with each other and with ABSI and …

Prioritizing Facilities Linked To Corporate Strategic Objectives Using A Fuzzy Model, Devin Depalmer, Steven J. Schuldt, Justin D. Delorit

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Limited facilities operating and modernization budgets require organizations to carefully identify, prioritize and authorize projects to ensure allocated resources align with strategic objectives. Traditional facility prioritization methods using risk matrices can be improved to increase granularity in categorization and avoid mathematical error or human cognitive biases. These limitations restrict the utility of prioritizations and if erroneously used to select projects for funding, they can lead to wasted resources. This paper aims to propose a novel facility prioritization methodology that corrects these assessment design and implementation issues.

Cybersecurity Risk Assessment Using Graph Theoretical Anomaly Detection And Machine Learning, Goksel Kucukkaya

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The cyber domain is a great business enabler providing many types of enterprises new opportunities such as scaling up services, obtaining customer insights, identifying end-user profiles, sharing data, and expanding to new communities. However, the cyber domain also comes with its own set of risks. Cybersecurity risk assessment helps enterprises explore these new opportunities and, at the same time, proportionately manage the risks by establishing cyber situational awareness and identifying potential consequences. Anomaly detection is a mechanism to enable situational awareness in the cyber domain. However, anomaly detection also requires one of the most extensive sets of data and features …

Influence Of The Inherent Safety Principles On Quantitative Risk In Process Industry: Application Of Genetic Algorithm Process Optimization (Gapo), Mehdi Jahangiri, Abolfazl Moghadasi, Mojtaba Kamalinia, Farid Sadeghianjahromi, Sean Banaee

Community & Environmental Health Faculty Publications

Inherent safety (IS) refers to a set of measures that enhance the safety level of processes and equipment, rendering additional equipment and/or add-ons. The early design phase of processes is suited best for implementation of IS strategies as some of such strategies either are impossible to be implemented at the operation phase or substantially increase costs. The purpose of this study is to present a new approach called genetic algorithm process optimization (GAPO), by which processes can be made inherently safer even at the operation phase. This study simulates the IS principle, assessing its impact on quantitative risk and the …

Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii

Theses and Dissertations

With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its task …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

Hans-Joachim Ruff-Stahl

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

Flight Risk Management And Crew Reserve Optimization, Ying Zhang

Doctoral Dissertations

There are two key concerns in the development process of aviation. One is safety, and the other is cost. An airline running with high safety and low cost must be the most competitive one in the market. This work investigates two research efforts respectively relevant to these two concerns.

When building support of a real time Flight Risk Assessment and Mitigation System (FRAMS), a sequential multi-stage approach is developed. The whole risk management process is considered in order to improve the safety of each flight by integrating AHP and FTA technique to describe the framework of all levels of risks …

Resilience In Ecotoxicology: Toward A Multiple Equilibrium Concept, Mirco Bundschuh, Ralf Schulz, Ralf B. Schäfer, Craig R. Allen, David G. Angeler

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

The term resilience describes stress-response patterns across scientific disciplines. In ecology, advances have been made to clearly define resilience based on underlying mechanistic assumptions. Engineering resilience (rebound) is used to describe the ability of organisms to recover from adverse conditions (disturbances), which is termed the rate of recovery. By contrast, the ecological resilience definition considers a systemic change, that is, when ecosystems reorganize into a new regime following disturbance. Under this new regime, structural and functional aspects change considerably relative to the previous regime, without recovery. In this context, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. In the present …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …

Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER® Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER® model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …

Probability-Based Hurricane Resilience Evaluation And Retrofitting For Residential Community, Yadong Dong

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Wood residential construction is vulnerable to hurricanes, as evident in recent hurricane events. Many studies indicated that the changing climate may very likely alter hurricane patterns, which could lead to more severe hurricane damage to the wood residential construction that accounts for 90% of the residence in the USA. On the other hand, deterioration of material increases the chance of structural failure by reducing the structural capacity (e.g., corrosion of fasteners in roof panel could significantly reduce the withdrawal capacity of the roofing structure during hurricane events).

Currently, most hurricane damage estimations only focus on direct loss (e.g., structural loss). …

Data Preparation For Validation Study Of Hazus Canada Flood Model, Heather Mcgrath, Emmanual Stefanakis, M Mccarthy, Miroslav Nastev

International Institute for Infrastructure Resilience and Reconstruction (I3R2) Conference

As our climate changes, the occurrence of extreme weather events and heavier rainfall becomes more common. This change in weather patterns and precipitation results in a greater number of recorded flood events and a larger magnitude of flood events. Canadian municipalities are therefore facing a pressing demand to perform hazard assessments to identify communities at risk and measure potential economic and societal losses due to flood events. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a standardized tool, Hazus-MH, for loss estimation from natural disasters for use in the US. Recently, Hazus has been adapted for use in Canada. This paper introduces …

Issue Brief: Saving By Mitigating, University Of Louisville, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Natural disasters can cause loss of life, inflict damage to buildings and infrastructure, and have devastating consequences for a community’s economic, social, and environmental well-being. Hazard mitigation means reducing damages from disasters.

Local governments have the responsibility to protect the health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. Proactive mitigation policies and actions help reduce risk and create safer, more disaster-resilient communities. Mitigation is an investment in your community’s future safety, equity, and sustainability.

A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff

Theses and Dissertations

A risk analysis methodology is necessary to manage the potential effects of oil refinery outages to the increasingly connected, interdependent critical infrastructure of the United States. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the lack of a critical infrastructure risk mitigation strategy was identified as an area for improvement. In both the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures occurred due to the interdependencies among infrastructures and their spatial relationships. Furthermore, the U.S. military is dependent on oil refining capability and a major shortage could potentially have devastating effects on mission accomplishment. As a result, a need has emerged to better …

Emerging M&S Application In Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Andreas Tolk, Michael Mcshane

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

There has been compelling signs of the great potential of building further synergy with academics, researchers, and industry practitioners from the areas of Modeling and Simulation (M&S) managing risk events. This paper provides an introduction to risk management and how M&S has permeated the risk management process. The trend has been to harness the advantages of M&S tools and techniques in terms of efficiency and effectiveness in managing risks. However, the more important contribution of M&S may be in how it provides a way for specialists in various disciplines or industries interact to manage risks that require multi-disciplinary approach. This …

Formal Mitigation Strategies For The Insider Threat: A Security Model And Risk Analysis Framework, Jonathan W. Butts

Theses and Dissertations

The advancement of technology and reliance on information systems have fostered an environment of sharing and trust. The rapid growth and dependence on these systems, however, creates an increased risk associated with the insider threat. The insider threat is one of the most challenging problems facing the security of information systems because the insider already has capabilities within the system. Despite research efforts to prevent and detect insiders, organizations remain susceptible to this threat because of inadequate security policies and a willingness of some individuals to betray their organization. To investigate these issues, a formal security model and risk analysis …

Selection And Application Of Distorted Risk Measures, Edwin J. Offutt

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops and illustrates a methodology for the selection of probability distributions and distortion functions associated with risk scenarios resulting from military capability shortfalls. Distorted (or transformed) risk measures are analyzed and applied to account for loss scenarios that may occur with low frequency but result in catastrophic outcomes. After reviewing the rudimentary concepts of distortion, four well-known continuous distributions, suitable for modeling risk scenarios, are chosen using defined criteria. Based on subject matter expert inputs, a simple method for assigning exactly one of the four distributions to any risk scenario is proposed. Four parametric distortion functions from the …

Measuring The Risk Of Shortfalls In Air Force Capabilities, William E. Woodward

Theses and Dissertations

The U.S. Air Force seeks to measure and prioritize risk as part of its Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA) process. The goal of the CRRA is to identify capability shortfalls, and the risks associated with those shortfalls, to influence future systems acquisition. Many fields, including engineering, medicine and finance, seek to model and measure risks. This research utilizes various risk measurement approaches to propose appropriate risk measures for a military context. Specifically, risk is modeled as a non-negative random variable of severity. Four measures are examined: simple expectation, a risk-value measure, tail conditional expectation, and distorted expectation. Risk measures …

Outsourcing Information Technology And The Insider Threat, Valerie L. Caruso

Theses and Dissertations

As one of our nation's top critical infrastructures, telecommunications is an essential element of many aspects of our lives upon which we, as a society, are becoming increasingly dependent. Computers, digital telephone switches, and interconnected information technology (IT) systems impact finances, travel, infrastructure management, and missions of national defense. This research examined whether the trend in increased outsourcing of information technology systems is a significant contributing factor to a reportedly increasing amount of insider attacks. In light of changing social, global economic, and technological conditions, the paradigm in which risk analysis, management practices, and operational and personnel security practices are …

Personnel Airdrop Risk Assessment Using Bootstrap Sampling, Wonsik Kim

Theses and Dissertations

Previous work on personnel airdrop problems involving jumpers has been (1) event-oriented entanglement rates, (2) number of canopy bumps, (3) landing injuries, and (4) deaths. The thesis expands this area of research by developing cumulative distribution functions of maximum possible chute entanglement risk for the C-17 using bootstrap techniques. By comparing the effects of various C-17 aircraft configurations on the entanglement CDF, this thesis shows that under certain configurations the risk of centerline entanglement for the C-17 is less than for the C-141.

Estimating Risks In Emerging Soil Remediation Technologies, Thomas J. Timmerman

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Energy is focusing a long-term development effort on producing cheaper, safer, and faster state-of-the-art soil remediation technologies. To assist with the management of these innovative technology development projects, ways of quantifiably measuring technical risk were investigated through a detailed literature review. 'Technical risk' was defined in this study as the combination of the consequences of undesired events and their likelihood. Careful design of the inputs into a technology selection decision support system accounted for the uncertainty in forecasting final characteristics of remediation technologies still in the early phases of R&D. Experts made subjective probability estimates of these …

The Role Of Scientists In Risk Assessment, Halina Szejwald Brown, Robert L. Goble

RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002)

The authors argue that Risk assessors belong to a profession and offer an alternative to the 1983 National Research Council model defining Risk assessment. They support and illustrate their model by reexamining three familiar Risk assessments: ethylene dibromide, WASH 1400, and Ice Minus Bacteria.