Engineering Commons^™

Prediction Of Remaining Life Of Power Transformers Based On Left Truncated And Right Censored Lifetime Data, Yili Hong, William Q. Meeker, James D. Mccalley

James McCalley

Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company’s fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company’s data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no …