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Uncertainty And Error In Combat Modeling, Simulation, And Analysis, Jason A. Blake

Theses and Dissertations

Due to the infrequent and competitive nature of combat, several challenges present themselves when developing a predictive simulation. First, there is limited data with which to validate such analysis tools. Secondly, there are many aspects of combat modeling that are highly uncertain and not knowable. This research develops a comprehensive set of techniques for the treatment of uncertainty and error in combat modeling and simulation analysis. First, Evidence Theory is demonstrated as a framework for representing epistemic uncertainty in combat modeling output. Next, a novel method for sensitivity analysis of uncertainty in Evidence Theory is developed. This sensitivity analysis method …