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A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
A Predictive Logistic Regression Model Of World Conflict Using Open Source Data, Benjamin C. Boekestein
Theses and Dissertations
Nations transitioning into conflict is an issue of national interest. This study considers various data for inclusion in a statistical model that predicts the future state of the world where nations will either be in a state of violent conflict or not in violent conflict based on available historical data. Logistic regression is used to construct and test various models to produce a parsimonious world model with 15 variables. Further analysis shows that nations differ significantly by geographical area. Therefore six sub-models are constructed for differing geographical areas of the world. The dominant variables for each sub-model vary, suggesting a …